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Prediction markets for Media
Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?
Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
3.76%chance
2440407
OptionVotes
36783
7377
OptionVotes
22604
7167
OptionVotes
1732
577
Will Open AI launch a social media app by the end of 2026?
Mar 3, 12:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.79%chance
586279
OptionVotes
2550
1629
Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?
Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
53.62%chance
221401
OptionVotes
1075
930
Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?
Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM
46.74%chance
201015
OptionVotes
1068
937
Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2026? (Super Smash Bros promotion event)
Oct 21, 11:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.13%chance
7525
OptionVotes
1523
657
Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?
Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
53.64%chance
8491
OptionVotes
1076
930
OptionVotes
1434
697
AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media
Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
45%chance
7326
OptionVotes
1106
905
OptionVotes
1035
966
Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000