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Prediction markets for Median
Did US real median household income increase in 2022?
Nov 5, 11:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
17.23%chance
4017224
OptionVotes
21518
5099
By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.
Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM
67.57%chance
748052
OptionVotes
1146
933
Will the UK Government offer >1000£ in tax incentives to people earning more than the UK median income to get health insurance before 2025?
Jan 2, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.49%chance
121938
OptionVotes
2042
865
Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?
Nov 14, 2:58 AMSep 21, 6:59 AM
64.6%chance
51548
OptionVotes
1351
740
During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?
Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
41.59%chance
9585
OptionVotes
1185
844
Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?
Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM
45.63%chance
13471
OptionVotes
1165
825
Will the Zillow's Rentals Data indicate a decrease in San Francisco's median rent at the end of 2026?
Feb 1, 8:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.11%chance
13418
OptionVotes
1042
950
Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?
Jun 22, 5:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
45.34%chance
7248
OptionVotes
683
428
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71%chance
11196
OptionVotes
1008
988
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18.9%chance
10193
OptionVotes
1106
959
Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 2,000,000 USD in Q3 2029?
Jun 8, 5:53 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
53.77%chance
3180
OptionVotes
721
359
Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2036?
Jun 1, 6:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
73%chance
266
OptionVotes
115
73