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Prediction markets for Meetup

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.4%chance

147482055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7728

1949

Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)

May 1, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8621

OptionProbability

Manifest (June, Berkeley)

Any event outside of the USA

Predict2026 (December, New York)

(Another) Gondor NYC meetup.

A Manifold-sponsored meetup that’s not Manifest

PREDICT (October, NYC)

NEXTPredict (October, NYC)

Prediction Market Conference (November, Las Vegas)

SBC (June, Fort Lauderdale)

100

100

83

59

51

50

31

24

0

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

Will Mustafa ever meet someone at his ACX meetups?

Oct 15, 10:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.08%chance

12571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

832

Which 2000s Sci-Fi Show Returns First? Stargate vs Firefly

Mar 11, 8:51 PMMar 11, 8:47 PM

9550

OptionProbability

Stargate

Firefly

59

41

October 2026 ACX Meetup in Fatima, Portugal

Oct 13, 12:18 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

26.45%chance

6290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

576

310

Will Austin LessWrong will ban someone in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.67%chance

5143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Will more than 3 ATX LW programmers be technologically unemployed at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 8:50 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

8.7%chance

4138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

91

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2026?

Jan 3, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Number of Applied Rationality Toronto events in 2026?

Jan 19, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

335

OptionProbability

8 - 14

1 - 7

15 - 21

>22

52

17

17

14

Will "Opinionated Takes on Meetups Organizing" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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