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Prediction markets for Meetup

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

147481979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8263

1925

Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?

Dec 1, 1:38 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

16.6%chance

203094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2244

447

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

Will Mustafa ever meet someone at his ACX meetups?

Oct 15, 10:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.08%chance

12571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

832

October 2026 ACX Meetup in Fatima, Portugal

Oct 13, 12:18 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

26.45%chance

6290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

576

310

Will Austin LessWrong will ban someone in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.67%chance

5143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2026?

Jan 3, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will more than 3 ATX LW programmers be technologically unemployed at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 8:50 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

8.17%chance

4128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

90

Number of Applied Rationality Toronto events in 2026?

Jan 19, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

8 - 14

1 - 7

15 - 21

>22

48

19

19

15

Will "Opinionated Takes on Meetups Organizing" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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