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Prediction markets for Meetup

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

147481979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8263

1925

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

Will Mustafa ever meet someone at his ACX meetups?

Oct 15, 10:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.08%chance

12571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

832

Which 2000s Sci-Fi Show Returns First? Stargate vs Firefly

Mar 11, 8:51 PMMar 11, 8:47 PM

8493

OptionProbability

Stargate

Firefly

61

39

October 2026 ACX Meetup in Fatima, Portugal

Oct 13, 12:18 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

26.45%chance

6290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

576

310

Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)

May 1, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3259

OptionProbability

Manifest (June, Berkeley)

NEXTPredict (October, NYC)

A Manifold-sponsored meetup that’s not Manifest

(Another) Gondor NYC meetup.

Predict2026 (December, Las Vegas)

Any event outside of the USA

PREDICT (October, NYC)

SBC (June, Fort Lauderdale)

Prediction Market Conference (November, Las Vegas)

88

66

60

59

57

57

50

26

24

Will Austin LessWrong will ban someone in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.67%chance

5143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Will more than 3 ATX LW programmers be technologically unemployed at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 8:50 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

8.7%chance

4138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

91

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2026?

Jan 3, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Number of Applied Rationality Toronto events in 2026?

Jan 19, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

335

OptionProbability

8 - 14

1 - 7

15 - 21

>22

52

17

17

14

Will "Opinionated Takes on Meetups Organizing" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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