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Prediction markets for Meetup

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.4%chance

147482055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7728

1949

Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)

May 1, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12957

OptionProbability

Manifest (June, Berkeley)

A Manifold-sponsored meetup that’s not Manifest

Any event outside of the USA

Predict2026 (December, New York)

(Another) Gondor NYC meetup.

PREDICT (October, NYC)

NEXTPredict (October, NYC)

Prediction Market Conference (November, Las Vegas)

SBC (June, Fort Lauderdale)

100

100

100

95

75

50

0

0

0

Which 2000s Sci-Fi Show Returns First? Stargate vs Firefly

Mar 11, 8:51 PMMar 11, 8:47 PM

9663

OptionProbability

Stargate

Firefly

54

46

Will Mustafa ever meet someone at his ACX meetups?

Oct 15, 10:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.08%chance

12571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

832

Will Austin LessWrong will ban someone in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.35%chance

7168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2026?

Jan 3, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.6%chance

7144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will more than 3 ATX LW programmers be technologically unemployed at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 8:50 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

8.7%chance

4138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

91

Number of Applied Rationality Toronto events in 2026?

Jan 19, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

335

OptionProbability

8 - 14

1 - 7

15 - 21

>22

52

17

17

14

Will "Opinionated Takes on Meetups Organizing" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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