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Prediction markets for Merge

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

25.42%chance

287870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3461

1125

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

10.26%chance

217537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2958

338

Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027?

Jun 13, 4:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.58%chance

184221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

499

Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026?

Apr 9, 6:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.88%chance

53598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4305

232

Will Tesla merge with or be acquired by SpaceX before 2028?

Apr 14, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.94%chance

193546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

782

Will Tesla merge with any of xAI, X, SpaceX or Neuralink, before 2027?

Feb 2, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

273222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

951

Drivechain: Bitcoin prices x drivechain merge by 2028

Nov 17, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53049

OptionProbability

No Drivechain // <= $100k

No Drivechain // > $100k

Drivechain // > $100k

Drivechain // <= $100k

33

30

21

16

Bitcoin merges Drivechain (BIP300/301) before 2028?

Nov 17, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.46%chance

51428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

757

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?

Aug 27, 5:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.63%chance

5564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

696

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Nov 25, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

53.3%chance

17390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

944

Will "Judgements: Merging Prediction & Evidence" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 29, 2:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.25%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

983

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