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Prediction markets for MERGE

By the end of 2025, will OpenAI and Anthropic merge?

Nov 20, 8:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.08%chance

5127418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22520

1105

Will Twitter/x.com merge with or acquire Truth Social by the end of 2025?

Aug 12, 8:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.58%chance

517487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2316

740

Will X (formerly Twitter) merge with DJT (Trump social media company) by year end 2025?

Nov 14, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.2%chance

265448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5497

182

Will Stripe / Shopify merge by the end of 2025

Nov 14, 2:28 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

6.13%chance

83910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3914

256

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

20.9%chance

153264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1946

514

Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.6%chance

363240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2026

808

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

33.02%chance

181605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2890

1359

Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027?

Jun 13, 4:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.54%chance

101058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1871

546

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Nov 25, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.82%chance

16380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

934

Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?

Aug 27, 5:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.07%chance

3153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Will "Judgements: Merging Prediction & Evidence" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 29, 2:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.25%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

983

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