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Prediction markets for Merge

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

52.71%chance

245995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

1941

Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027?

Jun 13, 4:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.89%chance

183900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1708

598

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026

Sep 9, 7:33 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

24.21%chance

92319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1769

565

Drivechain: Bitcoin prices x drivechain merge by 2028

Nov 17, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41960

OptionProbability

No Drivechain // <= $100k

No Drivechain // > $100k

Drivechain // > $100k

Drivechain // <= $100k

32

28

23

17

Will Tesla merge with any of xAI, X, SpaceX or Neuralink, before 2027?

Feb 2, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.01%chance

201931

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

852

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by May 1, 2026?

Sep 9, 7:16 PMMay 2, 11:59 PM

34.4%chance

71456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1381

724

Bitcoin merges Drivechain (BIP300/301) before 2028?

Nov 17, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.6%chance

51325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

810

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Nov 25, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

53.3%chance

17390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

944

Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?

Aug 27, 5:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.07%chance

3153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Will "Judgements: Merging Prediction & Evidence" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 29, 2:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.25%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

983

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