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Prediction markets for Merge

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

267261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3191

1225

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

14.69%chance

216787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2410

415

Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027?

Jun 13, 4:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

183971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1796

568

Will Tesla merge with or be acquired by SpaceX before 2028?

Apr 14, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.61%chance

173444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

680

Will Tesla merge with any of xAI, X, SpaceX or Neuralink, before 2027?

Feb 2, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.68%chance

263220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

952

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026

Sep 9, 7:33 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

24.11%chance

92324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1774

564

Drivechain: Bitcoin prices x drivechain merge by 2028

Nov 17, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42025

OptionProbability

No Drivechain // <= $100k

No Drivechain // > $100k

Drivechain // > $100k

Drivechain // <= $100k

32

29

22

17

Bitcoin merges Drivechain (BIP300/301) before 2028?

Nov 17, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.06%chance

51357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?

Aug 27, 5:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.63%chance

5564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

696

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Nov 25, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

53.3%chance

17390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

944

Will "Judgements: Merging Prediction & Evidence" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 29, 2:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.25%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

983

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