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Merge Labs News

    Prediction markets for Merge Labs

    November 2026 AI model releases

    Oct 31, 11:01 PMDec 1, 12:59 AM
    8112799

    OptionProbability

    Inkling (or any Thinking Machines model)

    Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)

    Gemini 4 Carbon

    GPT-6.2 Astra (6.x counts)

    Claude Fable 5.5 (5.2+ counts)

    GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)

    GPT-6.2 Sol

    Muse Wonder 1.x

    Grok 4.8 (or any Grok/Composer model)

    Muse Spark 1.x/2.x

    Nemotron 4 (or any Nemotron model)

    Any Nano Banana model

    MiMo V2.7 / V3 (or any MiMo model)

    Claude Opus 5.6

    GPT-6.2 Luna (6.x counts)

    DeepSeek V4.1 Pro / V5 (or any DeepSeek model)

    MiniMax M3.2 (or any MiniMax model)

    Any Mistral model

    Gemini 4 Flash-Lite

    Claude Haiku 5.6

    GPT-6.2 Terra

    Gemini 4 Flash

    Kimi K3.2 / K4 (or any Kimi model)

    Claude Sonnet 5.6

    Beam 1.x (or any Reflection model)

    Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) model

    100

    96

    95

    89

    87

    85

    80

    78

    74

    72

    71

    65

    63

    62

    57

    57

    53

    48

    40

    33

    32

    29

    19

    18

    17

    6

    10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

    Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    32.07%chance
    347402

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1458

    688

    Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?

    Dec 13, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    392415

    OptionProbability

    Will not cause extinction

    Will cause extinction, Alignment Failure

    Will cause extinction, Terminator

    Will cause extinction, Economic Competition

    Will cause extinction, Vulnerable World

    Other

    Will cause extinction, foom

    Will cause extinction, Gradual Replacement

    Will cause extinction, AI Race

    Will cause extinction, Other

    79

    10

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    0

    If AI causes human extinction before 2100, how will it happen

    Dec 29, 1:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    27911

    OptionProbability

    Will cause extinction, foom

    Will cause extinction, Alignment Failure

    Will cause extinction, Vulnerable World

    Other

    Will cause extinction, Economic Competition

    Will cause extinction, Terminator

    Will cause extinction, Gradual Replacement

    Will cause extinction, AI Race

    45

    21

    14

    7

    5

    3

    2

    2

    Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?

    Oct 29, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    8.94%chance
    19636

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    319

    31

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