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Prediction markets for Merkle Trade

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

90.1%chance

5210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

49

Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?

May 6, 10:13 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

37.72%chance

5139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

96

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.07%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

82

Will US BIS announce a new export control update affecting AI accelerators before 2026-09-30?

May 4, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

38.18%chance

2113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

31

Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.12%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

86

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

85

Will combined CoreWeave+Lambda+Crusoe 2026 revenue exceed $10B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

59.24%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.5%chance

25

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

99

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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