Merz News

Who replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?

Sep 14, 4:58 PMOct 21, 11:59 PM

174749

OptionProbability

Hendrik Wüst

Other

Johann Wadephul

Markus Söder

Thorsten Frei

Alexander Dobrindt

Daniel Günther

Boris Rhein

Nina Warken

Ursula von der Leyen

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

45.99%chance

254628

OptionVotes

YES

1084

923

Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?

Feb 26, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

323540

OptionProbability

Other

Markus Söder

Friedrich Merz

Boris Pistorius

No one before 2030

Alice Weidel

Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?

Jul 30, 1:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82%chance

273041

OptionVotes

YES

213

Klingbeil steps down as SPD leader before the end of 2026

Aug 23, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.36%chance

10802

OptionVotes

YES

1323

756

Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?

May 20, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33%chance

16603

OptionVotes

YES

142

Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?

Mar 30, 6:33 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.06%chance

15597

OptionVotes

YES

258

Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?

Mar 31, 11:49 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

46.83%chance

13266

OptionVotes

YES

118

Will Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?

Feb 9, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.17%chance

8193

OptionVotes

YES

269

Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?

Feb 9, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.85%chance

7141

OptionVotes

YES

146

What will happen to Germany if AfD controlled Chancellorship before 2031?

Oct 6, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

110

OptionProbability

Germany withdraws from the European Union (Dexit)

Significant reduction in Germany's immigration and asylum intake

Abolition of the current Euro currency or major eurozone reform

Termination of German military or financial aid to Ukraine

Significant reversal or repeal of major German climate policies

Major restructuring of the German public broadcasting system

Deterioration of diplomatic relations with EU member states

Significant increase in domestic social or political unrest

Implementation of stricter border controls within the Schengen Area

No major structural changes to Germany's governance or foreign policy

Arrest political opponents, scientists, public health experts

Germany becomes totalitarian dictatorship

Defunct prediction markets globally worldwide

Germany goes back to 1933 era

Will Russia destroy global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?

Sep 27, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM

11%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

Merz News

Prediction markets for Merz

Prediction markets for Merz

Prediction markets for Merz

Who replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?

Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?

Klingbeil steps down as SPD leader before the end of 2026

Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?

Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?

Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?

Will Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?

Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?

What will happen to Germany if AfD controlled Chancellorship before 2031?

Will Russia destroy global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?

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