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Prediction markets for Met Engine

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?

Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM

9.62%chance

194278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3066

326

Will we get a cure for cancer before we get fusion reactors?

May 9, 8:50 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

21.76%chance

26619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

936

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

3297

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2040-2045

2035-2040

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2060

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

11

10

10

10

10

9

5

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1001

976

What year do we get fusion reactors?

May 3, 10:20 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

490

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

49.79%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5014

4986

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