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Prediction markets for Meta AI

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.73%chance

3915385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20019

4755

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.11%chance

836987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1047

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166776

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

54

18

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.09%chance

231483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

835

What organization will first create superintelligence?

Sep 30, 10:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

271041

OptionProbability

Other

Anthropic

DeepMind

OpenAI

United States government

xAi

Meta AI

24

23

17

15

13

7

2

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

7898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3466

2193

Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.7%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

28

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

90.1%chance

5210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

49

Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B?

Apr 29, 8:54 AMFeb 28, 10:00 PM

57.76%chance

326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

75

Does open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?

Mar 12, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.54%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

120

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