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Prediction markets for Meta AI Research
Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?
Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
15.68%chance
7147255
OptionVotes
22945
4656
OptionProbability
28
24
11
11
10
9
7
1
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
20.95%chance
312584
OptionVotes
1101
926
OptionVotes
1141
752
Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?
Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM
26.66%chance
51141
OptionVotes
1659
603
Will Llama-3 (or next open Meta model) be obviously good in its first-order effects on the world?
Oct 23, 12:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
85.43%chance
181098
OptionVotes
1551
843
AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?
May 19, 12:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
35.89%chance
5140
OptionVotes
134
75
OptionVotes
173
58
OptionProbability
41
22
16
12
9
Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?
Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
41.66%chance
455
OptionVotes
118
85
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82