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Top stories

Microsoft Offers Multimillion-Dollar Packages and Most-Wanted List to Poach Meta AI Talent Amid Meta Superintelligence Labs Launch

Microsoft Offers Multimillion-Dollar Packages and Most-Wanted List to Poach Meta AI Talent Amid Meta Superintelligence Labs Launch

Authors

23

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Meta AI Research

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

32

23

21

8

8

5

3

0

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

Mar 1, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.29%chance

364370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2953

339

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

16.84%chance

312834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

868

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Mar 1, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.1%chance

131217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1934

517

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

67.92%chance

211112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will I get a job at an AI lab within before April 2026?

Dec 19, 6:56 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

15.19%chance

9222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?

May 19, 12:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

35.89%chance

5140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

74.99%chance

6115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?

Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.66%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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