Meta AI Research News

Microsoft Offers Multimillion-Dollar Packages and Most-Wanted List to Poach Meta AI Talent Amid Meta Superintelligence Labs Launch

1 year ago

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

Mar 1, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.27%chance

384389

OptionVotes

YES

2957

338

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.92%chance

322864

OptionVotes

YES

1213

898

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.89%chance

261921

OptionVotes

YES

149

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Mar 1, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.91%chance

151771

OptionVotes

YES

2299

435

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

1659

603

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

3.01%chance

9861

OptionVotes

YES

567

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.79%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

184

Best Engineering-Focused A.I. News Source (Permanent)

Apr 4, 4:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6108

OptionProbability

Other

Product Hunt, Filtered for A.I. and Last 90 Days https://www.producthunt.com/search?q=AI&lastLaunchedAfter=90%3Adays

Hacker News

Massachusetts Institute of technology

Twitter

Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?

Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.66%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

118

Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.12%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

120

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Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Best Engineering-Focused A.I. News Source (Permanent)

Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?

Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?

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