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Prediction markets for METR

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5431625

OptionProbability

<3 months

4-4.5 months

3.5-4 months

4.5-5 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

3-3.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

17

14

12

12

12

10

7

7

4

4

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2210326

OptionProbability

2-2.5x

1-1.2x

1.2-1.4x

1.4-1.6x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

2.5-3x

≥3x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

14

13

13

13

10

10

8

8

6

4

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.93%chance

419385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9560

1614

Kokotajlo v.s. Wyeth: METR task length 8+ hours in March 2027?

Aug 16, 7:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

439151

OptionProbability

Kokotajlo wins: longer than 8 hours

Wyeth wins: shorter than 8 hours

87

13

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.34%chance

10751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will "METR's Evaluation of GPT-5" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 2, 4:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

2206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Will "METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 18, 1:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estim..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 10:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "METR Research Update: Algorithmic vs. Holisti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 28, 10:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.97%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

1000

Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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