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Prediction markets for METR

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7546918

OptionProbability

3.5-4 months

3-3.5 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

<3 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

25

18

18

14

9

4

4

3

3

2

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5346244

OptionProbability

≥3x

2-2.5x

2.5-3x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

1.4-1.6x

1.2-1.4x

1-1.2x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

24

13

13

12

12

10

8

5

2

1

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.14%chance

429785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10747

1429

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

May 10, 8:44 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

33.57%chance

518753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8408

4296

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

252355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

631

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.27%chance

81028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1481

907

Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.13%chance

5721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

920

METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?

Mar 6, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.98%chance

12639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1398

866

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

Will "METR's Evaluation of GPT-5" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 2, 4:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

2206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

Will "METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 18, 1:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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