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Prediction markets for METR

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6541470

OptionProbability

3-3.5 months

3.5-4 months

<3 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

18

18

17

17

8

6

5

4

3

3

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4439610

OptionProbability

1.4-1.6x

1.2-1.4x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

≥3x

1-1.2x

2-2.5x

2.5-3x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

25

18

17

12

8

7

6

4

3

2

Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?

Mar 5, 9:16 PMApr 4, 8:15 PM

38%chance

10114672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.14%chance

429785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10747

1429

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.62%chance

191656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

773

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

37.73%chance

111223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

778

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.34%chance

7654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

979

METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?

Mar 6, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.08%chance

7457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

914

Will "METR's Evaluation of GPT-5" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 2, 4:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

2206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

Will "METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 18, 1:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "METR Research Update: Algorithmic vs. Holisti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 28, 10:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.97%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

1000

Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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