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Prediction markets for METR

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Oct 9, 5:57 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

72.16%chance

11218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1610

621

Will a Google model lead METR's task duration chart by EOY?

Sep 4, 9:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.31%chance

253003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

551

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

Nov 24, 7:29 PMDec 31, 7:28 PM

77.68%chance

202718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1866

536

Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?

Oct 14, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.5%chance

211608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

983

Will OpenAI get unrestricted access to >60% of the work done by METR baseliners?

Jan 20, 3:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.26%chance

51550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2452

408

Will "Clarifying METR's Auditing Role" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 14, 5:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.4%chance

3340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

954

Will "METR's Evaluation of GPT-5" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 2, 4:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

2206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Will "Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estim..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 10:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "METR Research Update: Algorithmic vs. Holisti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 28, 10:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.97%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

1000

Will "METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 18, 1:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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