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Prediction markets for Metrics

Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?

Oct 19, 12:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.15%chance

283724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2398

808

Will I aquire over 1 metric ton of Tungsten by 2028?

Jun 10, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.71%chance

131408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2408

415

Will the US convert to the metric system before 2050?

Aug 25, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.96%chance

23670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

911

Given that LK-99 is a rt/ap superconductor, will its average market price in 2028 be below $5,000.00 / metric ton?

Aug 6, 11:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.37%chance

9308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

110

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

May 5, 10:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.83%chance

10242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

40

Will the USA catch more than 1600 metric tons of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna in 2025?

Nov 4, 8:16 AMMay 1, 10:59 PM

23.96%chance

6226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will at least one U.S. State or the Federal Government mandate converting road signs to the metric system before 2035?

Jun 29, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.18%chance

10200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

963

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?

Apr 1, 6:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.54%chance

4168

OptionProbability

NO

YES

318

305

We will share a universal civility metric, and show that for most players, it increases over time

Sep 10, 2:57 PMSep 9, 2:57 PM

69.9%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

106

How long until the USA fully adopts the metric system?

Oct 16, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

270

OptionProbability

More than 5 but less than 10 years

3-5 years

1-3 years

67

26

8

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

Between $1t and $5t

Between $500b and $1t

>$10tn

Between $5t and $10t

Between $100b and $500b

< $100bn

54

22

6

6

6

6

Are HLI Metrics against AGI a Red Herring?

Apr 6, 3:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50.52%chance

429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

91

89

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