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Prediction markets for Microsoft AI Research

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?

Mar 27, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.28%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

45.09%chance

8222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will eMudhra be in businesss EOY 2027?

Oct 24, 1:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.65%chance

7121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

57

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.79%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.19%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

91

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2027?

Oct 21, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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