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Top stories

Microsoft Hires 24 Google DeepMind Researchers to Boost Copilot AI

Microsoft Hires 24 Google DeepMind Researchers to Boost Copilot AI

Authors

19

12 days ago

Prediction markets for Microsoft AI

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.49%chance

18021021808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17864

9273

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40639245

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

Other

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

32

26

21

20

A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026

Mar 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

16.16%chance

356288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2278

439

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Feb 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.66%chance

452964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

965

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

26.86%chance

342895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1650

606

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will the AI that takes over the universe be a cute anime girl?

Sep 21, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.8%chance

321007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

926

Will Google issue an employee memo saying 'AI is no longer optional' for developers similar to Microsoft by EOY 2025?

Jul 3, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62%chance

14449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

If OpenAI ever rebrands, what will their new name be?

Jun 5, 2:11 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

16278

OptionProbability

Other

Something not mentioned at market close

ai.com

Copilot

ZOMBO

Microsoft AI

Technotropic

Brain

Cortana

Clippy

OAI

ClosedAI

Ajar AI

ClopenAI

30

24

21

15

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

74.99%chance

6115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

35.7%chance

6109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

117

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