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Prediction markets for Microsoft AI
New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?
Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41139585
OptionProbability
37
29
18
16
OptionVotes
2390
418
Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?
Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM
84.45%chance
201679
OptionVotes
2372
437
Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040?
Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
23.41%chance
251656
OptionVotes
992
966
OptionVotes
1086
921
Will the AI that takes over the universe be a cute anime girl?
Sep 21, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30.68%chance
341027
OptionVotes
1126
924
OptionProbability
53
52
47
38
35
31
30
20
19
12
Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?
Aug 8, 12:43 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
62.49%chance
11656
OptionVotes
1291
775
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
40.89%chance
8472
OptionVotes
1202
832
OptionProbability
48
19
17
10
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027
Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM
18.66%chance
7209
OptionVotes
246
82
OptionVotes
173
58


