Microsoft AI News

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

3 months ago

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

1.88%chance

18141118911

OptionVotes

YES

102031

3309

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.95%chance

11853517

OptionVotes

YES

1563

640

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

28.29%chance

213651

OptionVotes

YES

1592

628

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Feb 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.71%chance

493249

OptionVotes

YES

1207

925

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

16.77%chance

252719

OptionVotes

YES

1920

176

What caused Ilya to switch sides?

Nov 20, 2:43 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

21970

OptionProbability

Threats of staff leaving

No, it was not wheat that caused Ilya to switch sides.

Convinced by personal ties to Anna Brockman

Safety concerns over Microsoft dominance in AI

seeing loyalty to altman

Threats to cancel Ilya if he didn’t reverse his position.

Greg's wife crying and asking him to change his mind

Realized board had too little bargaining power / was losing the culture war

Financial incentives

Planned volte-face in a coup to oust the external board members

Will Google issue an employee memo saying 'AI is no longer optional' for developers similar to Microsoft by EOY 2025?

Jul 3, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

14476

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.45%chance

8445

OptionVotes

YES

1164

859

If OpenAI ever rebrands, what will their new name be?

Jun 5, 2:11 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

17328

OptionProbability

Other

Something not mentioned at market close

ai.com

Copilot

Microsoft AI

Cortana

Clippy

OAI

ZOMBO

ClosedAI

Ajar AI

ClopenAI

Technotropic

Brain

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

74.99%chance

6115

OptionVotes

YES

173

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

35.7%chance

6109

OptionVotes

YES

146

117

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Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

What caused Ilya to switch sides?

Will Google issue an employee memo saying 'AI is no longer optional' for developers similar to Microsoft by EOY 2025?

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

If OpenAI ever rebrands, what will their new name be?

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

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