Microsoft AI News

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

11 months ago

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239715

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.82%chance

9412544

OptionVotes

YES

12271

8388

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

2390

418

Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

272090

OptionVotes

YES

1023

826

Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?

Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

85.11%chance

221741

OptionVotes

YES

2434

426

Will the AI that takes over the universe be a cute anime girl?

Sep 21, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.68%chance

341027

OptionVotes

YES

1126

924

What caused Ilya to switch sides?

Nov 20, 2:43 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

21982

OptionProbability

Threats of staff leaving

No, it was not wheat that caused Ilya to switch sides.

Convinced by personal ties to Anna Brockman

Safety concerns over Microsoft dominance in AI

seeing loyalty to altman

Threats to cancel Ilya if he didn’t reverse his position.

Greg's wife crying and asking him to change his mind

Realized board had too little bargaining power / was losing the culture war

Financial incentives

Planned volte-face in a coup to oust the external board members

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.89%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

If OpenAI ever rebrands, what will their new name be?

Jun 5, 2:11 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

17328

OptionProbability

Other

Something not mentioned at market close

ai.com

Copilot

Microsoft AI

Cortana

Clippy

OAI

ZOMBO

ClosedAI

Ajar AI

ClopenAI

Technotropic

Brain

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

18.66%chance

7209

OptionVotes

YES

246

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

60.76%chance

7192

OptionVotes

YES

124

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Prediction markets for Microsoft AI

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Prediction markets for Microsoft AI

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040?

Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?

Will the AI that takes over the universe be a cute anime girl?

What caused Ilya to switch sides?

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

If OpenAI ever rebrands, what will their new name be?

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

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