Microsoft Research News
Prediction markets for Microsoft Research
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.54%chance
17534125
OptionVotes
14201
7469
OptionVotes
295
34
Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?
Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM
66.67%chance
14463
OptionVotes
1089
935
OptionVotes
226
177
OptionVotes
110
91
OptionVotes
176
57
Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?
Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.79%chance
5117
OptionVotes
184
54
Will there be yet another SSL CA incident similar to eMudhra by EOY 2027?
Oct 21, 6:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.69%chance
392
OptionVotes
190
53
OptionVotes
161
62
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.76%chance
173
OptionVotes
119
91
Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
124
OptionVotes
124
67
Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?
Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
12
OptionVotes
100
100