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Prediction markets for Microsoft Research

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.82%chance

9412544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12271

8388

Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?

Mar 27, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.28%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

63.2%chance

13363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

989

Did Microsoft build a Majorana qubit?

Feb 21, 1:31 PMMay 12, 10:59 PM

25.73%chance

15331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

177

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

60.76%chance

7192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

80

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.19%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

280

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