Military Intelligence News

What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?

Dec 5, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22697498

OptionProbability

It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings

Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones

The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration

They record images/video using digital cameras

More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings

Their true nature will remain a mystery

Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Belong to a hobbyist

Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat

At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered

Uses cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to an activist

Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

Linked to illegal drug activity

Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public

An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones

Belong to a start-up

Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others

they're designed to look like a commercial jet

Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to a large company

Belong to the US military/gov

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary

Are investigating Plasmoids

They’re looking for ionizing radiation

Hoax put on specifically by Anthpo

Are investigating Gamma Radiation

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US

Linked to Russia (government/military)

It's a publicity stunt for a company

Belong to a foreign government/agency

Aliens

Linked to Blockchain technology

AI superintelligence

Terrorism

It's a new delivery service

Linked to North Korea

Linked to China (government/military)

100% of all footage of the drones was AI generated

Secret private industry ARVs investigating the orbs individuals are summoning through meditation.

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

49.18%chance

579586

OptionVotes

YES

1017

984

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Jun 2, 9:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.09%chance

393485

OptionVotes

YES

2372

422

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.21%chance

983383

OptionVotes

YES

1883

1419

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

79.95%chance

352025

OptionVotes

YES

1278

900

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.83%chance

241468

OptionVotes

YES

1464

683

$300M subsidy: Did Israel bomb an evacuation route?

Oct 19, 6:53 AMJul 11, 1:59 PM

48.54%chance

281456

OptionVotes

YES

1072

914

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

111359

OptionProbability

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-designed cyberweapon

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about people getting scammed

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

AI-related cyberattack

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity in academic communities

Reports of activity in online video games

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029

Mar 11, 3:37 PMJan 20, 12:00 AM

28.77%chance

201283

OptionVotes

YES

1574

635

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

1074

957

Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jul 1, 5:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29.43%chance

12429

OptionVotes

YES

1176

910

Has there been / will there be any covert Israeli 🇮🇱 sabotage activity inside Iran 🇮🇷 after the June ceasefire?

Jul 24, 1:59 AMJun 30, 6:59 PM

64.68%chance

6369

OptionVotes

YES

1353

739

Military Intelligence News

Prediction markets for Military Intelligence

Prediction markets for Military Intelligence

Prediction markets for Military Intelligence

What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

$300M subsidy: Did Israel bomb an evacuation route?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Has there been / will there be any covert Israeli 🇮🇱 sabotage activity inside Iran 🇮🇷 after the June ceasefire?

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