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Prediction markets for Millenium

AI solves Millenium Prize Problem in 2025?

Dec 21, 10:53 PMDec 30, 1:29 PM

2%chance

7050015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7000

143

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

64.09%chance

12434443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

791

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

20%chance

10428793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

924

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

40.37%chance

12721798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

1081

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

Jan 7, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.29%chance

879727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

787

Which millenium problem will be solved first?

Feb 17, 9:26 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

584625

OptionProbability

Navier-Stokes problem

BSD Conjecture

Yang-Mills Existence and mass gap

Riemann hypothesis

Hodge Conjecture

P vs NP

54

16

10

9

6

5

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2040?

Feb 13, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.05%chance

142472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

468

Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?

Apr 18, 8:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

292432

OptionProbability

Navier-Stokes

Riemann Hypothesis

Birch Swinnerton Dyer Conjecture

Hodge Conjecture

Yang-Mills Mass Gap

P vs NP

Other

53

17

11

7

6

5

1

Will any of the remaining Clay Millenium problems be solved with substantial help from an AI before 2030?

Jan 6, 8:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.78%chance

241507

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

112

When will one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved?

Jan 10, 6:33 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

141423

OptionProbability

2024-2029

Other

2030-2035

2035-2040

48

36

9

7

Navier Stonks (ie Will the prize for the resolution of the Navier-Stokes millenium problem be taken ?)

Apr 9, 12:13 PMApr 16, 9:59 PM

86.83%chance

15749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

650

161

Which Millenium Problems will be among the last 3 to be solved?

Oct 6, 5:20 PMOct 6, 5:20 PM

9409

OptionProbability

P vs NP

Hodge Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Yang-Mills

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture

Navier-Stokes

Poincare Conjecture

67

64

58

46

41

17

0

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