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Prediction markets for Millenium

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

44%chance

13338909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1820

419

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

31.73%chance

12235791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

745

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

52.38%chance

13723963

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

807

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

Jan 7, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

9510242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

671

Which millenium problem will be solved first?

Feb 17, 9:26 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

658009

OptionProbability

Navier-Stokes problem

BSD Conjecture

Riemann hypothesis

Yang-Mills Existence and mass gap

Hodge Conjecture

P vs NP

37

20

19

10

9

6

Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?

Apr 18, 8:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

356248

OptionProbability

Navier-Stokes

Birch Swinnerton Dyer Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Hodge Conjecture

Yang-Mills Mass Gap

P vs NP

Other

48

23

11

7

6

4

2

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2040?

Feb 13, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.05%chance

152592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1771

101

Will any of the remaining Clay Millenium problems be solved with substantial help from an AI before 2030?

Jan 6, 8:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50.86%chance

261659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

100

When will one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved?

Jan 10, 6:33 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

151450

OptionProbability

2024-2029

Other

2030-2035

2035-2040

47

26

16

12

Which Millenium Problems will be among the last 3 to be solved?

Oct 6, 5:20 PMOct 6, 5:20 PM

10426

OptionProbability

P vs NP

Hodge Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Yang-Mills

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture

Navier-Stokes

Poincare Conjecture

77

66

58

46

34

17

0

How many years will pass from AI aceing Putnam to a Millenium Prize problem getting solved?

Jan 30, 11:26 PMFeb 22, 10:59 PM

5159

OptionProbability

1-2

0

3-5

6+

Millenium Prize first

27

21

21

21

10

Is any Millenium problem independent of ZFC?

Apr 9, 7:17 AMApr 16, 7:17 AM

33.59%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

81

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