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Prediction markets for Millenium

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

47%chance

13138296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1771

461

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Aug 6, 7:13 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

28.33%chance

11634900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

842

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

40%chance

13022398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

1091

AI solves Millenium Prize Problem in 2026?

Dec 30, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.98%chance

389930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3188

314

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

Jan 7, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.91%chance

899785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

735

Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?

Apr 18, 8:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

345679

OptionProbability

Navier-Stokes

Birch Swinnerton Dyer Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Hodge Conjecture

Yang-Mills Mass Gap

P vs NP

Other

44

25

12

7

6

4

1

Which millenium problem will be solved first?

Feb 17, 9:26 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

595439

OptionProbability

Navier-Stokes problem

BSD Conjecture

Riemann hypothesis

Yang-Mills Existence and mass gap

Hodge Conjecture

P vs NP

36

22

15

11

10

6

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2040?

Feb 13, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.05%chance

152592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

468

Will any of the remaining Clay Millenium problems be solved with substantial help from an AI before 2030?

Jan 6, 8:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.78%chance

241507

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

112

Navier Stonks (ie Will the prize for the resolution of the Navier-Stokes millenium problem be taken ?)

Apr 9, 12:13 PMApr 16, 9:59 PM

83%chance

18871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

539

181

Which Millenium Problems will be among the last 3 to be solved?

Oct 6, 5:20 PMOct 6, 5:20 PM

9409

OptionProbability

P vs NP

Hodge Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Yang-Mills

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture

Navier-Stokes

Poincare Conjecture

67

64

58

46

41

17

0

How many years will pass from AI aceing Putnam to a Millenium Prize problem getting solved?

Jan 30, 11:26 PMFeb 22, 10:59 PM

5159

OptionProbability

1-2

0

3-5

6+

Millenium Prize first

27

21

21

21

10

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