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Prediction markets for MiniMax

August 2026 AI model releases

Aug 1, 1:57 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8813263

OptionProbability

Muse Spark 1.2 (or any Meta model)

Qwen 3.8 (or any Qwen model)

GLM-5.x (or any GLM model)

Deepseek V4 Pro GA (or any Deepseek model)

Grok 4.x

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash

Claude Fable 5.x

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Claude Haiku 5.x

Claude Sonnet 5.x

GPT-5.7

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite

GPT-6

Claude Opus 5.x

Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model

100

99

93

89

88

81

54

46

41

35

34

27

26

24

19

18

14

3

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.38%chance

224322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2669

576

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21889

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Google

xAI

Other

DeepSeek

Meta

Mistral AI

Alibaba

MiniMax

Z.ai

42

35

7

6

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?

Aug 5, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.54%chance

7111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

17

Will it be psble to run python code from https://minimaxir.com/2025/01/write-better-code/ within browser by EOY2027?

Jan 13, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.83%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Anthropic

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Zhipu / Z.ai

StepFun

Other (any company not listed above)

14

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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