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Prediction markets for MiniMax

May 2026 AI model releases

Apr 30, 8:42 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

477853

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.x Flash-Lite

GPT-5.x

Gemini 3.x Flash

Qwen 3.6 (or any Qwen model)

Gemini 3.x Pro

Minimax M3 (or any Minimax model)

GLM-5.2 (or any GLM model)

Claude Sonnet 4.7 (or 4.x variant)

Kimi K3 (or any Kimi model)

Any Grok Model

Meta Mango (or any Meta model)

Claude Haiku 4.6 (or 4.x variant)

Claude Opus 4.8 (or 4.x variant)

Claude Opus 5

GPT-6

Claude Sonnet 5

Claude Mythos (or any variant)

100

100

91

91

84

82

78

59

54

53

42

25

17

10

8

6

6

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.38%chance

224322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2669

576

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

M3 (Minimax) release date

Feb 20, 5:45 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

15879

OptionProbability

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before September 2026

Before October 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

87

83

80

80

71

62

36

0

0

0

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14479

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

DeepSeek

xAI

Moonshot AI

Other

Meta

Mistral AI

Alibaba

MiniMax

Z.ai

33

29

18

4

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

Will it be psble to run python code from https://minimaxir.com/2025/01/write-better-code/ within browser by EOY2027?

Jan 13, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.83%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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