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Prediction markets for Minis

Will Apple reintroduce the iPhone Mini before the end of 2025

Jan 24, 12:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.14%chance

194443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4187

829

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Jun 24, 8:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

143060

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029 or Later

52

25

14

6

2

Will Mini be cited in an academic journal by 2025?

Feb 15, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.38%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

702

Will Apple start making a new iPhone mini before 7th Aug 2028?

Aug 7, 2:43 PMAug 7, 10:59 PM

22.8%chance

171176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

461

Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?

Dec 1, 1:38 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

29.28%chance

11927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

643

What locations will be used in missions or mini games in GTA6?

Mar 23, 11:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19497

OptionProbability

Everglades

Strip club

Yacht / sailing

Military base

Theme park rides

Concert / club / rave

Space launch pad

A tiger / big cat private zoo or animal sanctuary

MMA fight arena

90

88

85

81

72

72

71

62

57

Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?

May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.65%chance

7297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

278

37

Will Apple release a Mac mini with M5 generation chipsets by the end of the year?

Oct 1, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.19%chance

4281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

28

Has Trump had at least one mini-stroke?

Jun 22, 7:47 PMJun 23, 4:59 AM

75.77%chance

13187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

57

Will a TV show or mini-series be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?

Mar 13, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

95

How many parameters does the o1-mini model have?

Dec 4, 10:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

386

OptionProbability

2B<X<8B

8B<X<20B

20B<X<40B

Other

>40B

<2B

21

21

21

21

10

6

If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?

Feb 21, 7:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

65.58%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

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