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Prediction markets for Minis

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Jun 24, 8:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

112654

Will Apple reintroduce the iPhone Mini before the end of 2025

Jan 24, 12:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.3%chance

182443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2187

891

Will Mini be cited in an academic journal by 2025?

Feb 15, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

261343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

717

Will Apple start making a new iPhone mini before 7th Aug 2028?

Aug 7, 2:43 PMAug 7, 10:59 PM

22.8%chance

171176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

461

Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?

Nov 13, 6:39 AMNov 13, 7:59 AM

83.73%chance

131044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

47

Conditional on OpenAI releasing an open-source LLM in 2025, will it exceed o3-mini in AIME 2025 score?

Jun 30, 2:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.74%chance

12637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

690

What locations will be used in missions or mini games in GTA6?

Mar 23, 11:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18467

OptionProbability

Everglades

Strip club

Yacht / sailing

Military base

Theme park rides

Space launch pad

Concert / club / rave

A tiger / big cat private zoo or animal sanctuary

MMA fight arena

90

88

85

76

72

71

69

62

57

Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?

May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.73%chance

6272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

41

Has Trump had at least one mini-stroke?

Jun 22, 7:47 PMJun 23, 4:59 AM

62.26%chance

8110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

Will a TV show or mini-series be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?

Mar 13, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

95

How many parameters does the o1-mini model have?

Dec 4, 10:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

386

OptionProbability

2B<X<8B

8B<X<20B

20B<X<40B

Other

>40B

<2B

21

21

21

21

10

6

If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?

Feb 21, 7:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

65.58%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

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