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Prediction markets for Ministry of State Security

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

On 1 April 2026: who is the de facto executive authority in Caracas?

Jan 3, 10:34 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

161789

OptionProbability

United Socialist Party of Venezuela Representative

US Government

Military junta

Opposition representative

Contested/dual power/civil war

81

6

5

4

4

Will Iran and the United States reach an agreement by the end of February?

Feb 1, 6:18 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

8.13%chance

8370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

336

30

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