Minor News

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47106751

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Apr 16, 3:28 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

11116619

OptionProbability

Doesn’t work at all and never will

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

Causes (at least) medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 1:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

655180

OptionProbability

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Her (2013)

Interstellar (2014)

Children of Men (2006)

Gattaca (1997)

WALL-E (2008)

Ready Player One (2018)

The Matrix (1999)

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (2004)

Blade Runner (1982)

The Terminator (1984)

The Lives of Others (2006)

Back to the Future Part II (1989)

Elysium (2013)

Ad Astra (2019)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Wag the Dog (1997)

Will White British People Become a Minority in the United Kingdom by 2060?

Sep 1, 3:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

66.53%chance

384616

OptionVotes

YES

1161

858

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

Jul 25, 1:00 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

35.12%chance

524200

OptionVotes

YES

1122

237

Which minor party will enter the Riksdag next?

Sep 23, 7:23 PMSep 12, 11:59 PM

71476

OptionProbability

Other

Örebro Party (Örebropartiet)

Nuance Party (Partiet Nyans)

The Pirate Party (Piratpartiet)

Feminist Initiative (Feministiskt initiativ)

Citizens' Coalition (Medborgerlig Samling)

Alternative for Sweden (Alternativ för Sverige)

What degrees (including majors and minors) will I graduate with from the University of Chicago?

Dec 28, 2:48 PMJun 15, 3:59 PM

10501

OptionProbability

Economics

Physics

Math

Computer Science

Music

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

263

113

Will the British Government ban non-alcoholic drinks for minors in 2026?

Jan 17, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.96%chance

4240

OptionVotes

YES

340

Year that at least nine states in the United States are majority-minority

Jan 16, 4:13 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.87%chance

496

OptionProbability

YES

403

259

Will a minor battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Jul 28, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.54%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

150

105

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

May 20, 6:52 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

40.23%chance

338

OptionVotes

YES

122

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EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Will White British People Become a Minority in the United Kingdom by 2060?

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

Which minor party will enter the Riksdag next?

What degrees (including majors and minors) will I graduate with from the University of Chicago?

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Will the British Government ban non-alcoholic drinks for minors in 2026?

Year that at least nine states in the United States are majority-minority

Will a minor battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

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