Minor News

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3348416

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Apr 16, 3:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10614351

OptionProbability

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

Doesn’t work at all and never will

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride

Causes (at least) medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 1:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

635154

OptionProbability

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Her (2013)

Interstellar (2014)

Children of Men (2006)

WALL-E (2008)

Ready Player One (2018)

The Matrix (1999)

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (2004)

Blade Runner (1982)

The Terminator (1984)

The Lives of Others (2006)

Back to the Future Part II (1989)

Elysium (2013)

Ad Astra (2019)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Gattaca (1997)

Wag the Dog (1997)

Will White British People Become a Minority in the United Kingdom by 2060?

Sep 1, 3:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.7%chance

333681

OptionVotes

YES

998

949

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

Jul 25, 1:00 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

20%chance

352813

OptionVotes

YES

1036

474

What degrees (including majors and minors) will I graduate with from the University of Chicago?

Dec 28, 2:48 PMJun 15, 3:59 PM

9451

OptionProbability

Economics

Physics

Computer Science

Math

Music

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

263

113

2025 AFL minor premiership winner

Feb 1, 10:57 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7283

OptionProbability

Other

Geelong Cats

Sydney Swans

Western Bulldogs

Brisbane Lions

Hawthorn

Port Adelaide

Fremantle

Carlton

GWS Giants

Collingwood

Year that at least nine states in the United States are majority-minority

Jan 16, 4:13 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.87%chance

496

OptionProbability

YES

403

259

Will a minor battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Jul 28, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.54%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

150

105

Will "The Minority Coalition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jan 19, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.07%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

170

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

May 20, 6:52 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

111

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EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Will White British People Become a Minority in the United Kingdom by 2060?

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

What degrees (including majors and minors) will I graduate with from the University of Chicago?

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

2025 AFL minor premiership winner

Year that at least nine states in the United States are majority-minority

Will a minor battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Will "The Minority Coalition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

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