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Prediction markets for Minor

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3757067

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

32

28

25

15

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 1:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

645155

OptionProbability

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Her (2013)

Interstellar (2014)

Children of Men (2006)

WALL-E (2008)

Ready Player One (2018)

The Matrix (1999)

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (2004)

Blade Runner (1982)

The Terminator (1984)

The Lives of Others (2006)

Back to the Future Part II (1989)

Elysium (2013)

Ad Astra (2019)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Gattaca (1997)

Wag the Dog (1997)

33

23

20

4

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will White British People Become a Minority in the United Kingdom by 2060?

Sep 1, 3:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.89%chance

364039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

650

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

Jul 25, 1:00 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

16.8%chance

382990

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

574

Which minor party will enter the Riksdag next?

Sep 23, 7:23 PMSep 12, 11:59 PM

5899

OptionProbability

Other

Örebro Party (Örebropartiet)

Nuance Party (Partiet Nyans)

Citizens' Coalition (Medborgerlig Samling)

The Pirate Party (Piratpartiet)

Feminist Initiative (Feministiskt initiativ)

Alternative for Sweden (Alternativ för Sverige)

29

19

11

11

10

10

9

Trump indicted for sexual misconduct with a minor by 12/31/25?

Aug 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.17%chance

4601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

671

15

What degrees (including majors and minors) will I graduate with from the University of Chicago?

Dec 28, 2:48 PMJun 15, 3:59 PM

9451

OptionProbability

Economics

Physics

Computer Science

Math

Music

89

71

29

27

15

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

113

Year that at least nine states in the United States are majority-minority

Jan 16, 4:13 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.87%chance

496

OptionProbability

YES

NO

403

259

Will "The Minority Coalition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jan 19, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.07%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

92

Will a minor battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Jul 28, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.54%chance

570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

105

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

May 20, 6:52 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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