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Prediction markets for Mir

Will @Mira cause human extinction by 2030?

Jul 12, 5:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

93356096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7202

931

Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?

Jun 15, 7:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.52%chance

256995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4139

242

@Mira Stock

Apr 10, 1:15 PMApr 11, 4:59 AM

316874

OptionProbability

NO

YES

631

515

By 2028, will I think MIRI has been net-good for the world?

Nov 29, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

79.71%chance

234040

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1688

729

Will Mira Murati be CEO of OpenAI before 2029? (again)

May 27, 8:46 AMMar 5, 9:59 PM

7.51%chance

203223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

Mirror life created by EOY2030?

Jun 28, 11:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.46%chance

242671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3094

323

Which of Tumbles, Mira, or Strutheo will go to space first?

Mar 26, 5:51 PMApr 21, 6:59 AM

192563

OptionProbability

No one goes to space

Mira will be the first to space

Tumbles will be the first to space

Strutheo will be the first to space

86

13

1

1

If alignment is solved, what percentage of the technical work will have come from MIRI?

Sep 30, 10:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.43%chance

111053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

983

795

Will "MIRI’s 2025 Fundraiser" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 2, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.5%chance

4820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1820

907

Will the Southern Elephant Seal (Mirounga leonina) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 5:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.71%chance

6637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

796

408

Will Lin-Manuel Miranda complete an EGOT in his lifetime?

Oct 4, 6:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.42%chance

14332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

823

What will MIRI's expenses be in 2026?

Apr 7, 12:49 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Above $3,500,000

Above $5,000,000

Above $7,500,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $15,000,000

50

50

50

50

50

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