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Prediction markets for Mir
Will any of @Mira 's pets appear on the Dwarkesh Podcast by end of 2025?
Sep 18, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
2.52%chance
3160997
OptionVotes
68990
2486
Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?
Jun 15, 7:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
10.66%chance
215638
OptionVotes
2896
345
Major laboratory safety breach involving mirror life research reported before 2026?
Dec 13, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
3.19%chance
84970
OptionVotes
5512
181
By 2028, will I think MIRI has been net-good for the world?
Nov 29, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
79.71%chance
234040
OptionVotes
1688
729
OptionVotes
3259
307
OptionVotes
2561
390
OptionVotes
2885
347
Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 29, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
25.74%chance
111841
OptionVotes
1112
522
Will a new musical by Lin-Manuel Miranda premier by the end of 2025?
Aug 3, 7:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
27.36%chance
9854
OptionVotes
1629
614
Will "Leaving MIRI, Seeking Funding" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Aug 8, 9:32 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
8.64%chance
4660
OptionVotes
1595
927
Will Lin-Manuel Miranda complete an EGOT in his lifetime?
Oct 4, 6:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
63.42%chance
14332
OptionVotes
1234
823
OptionVotes
1015
985