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Prediction markets for MIRA

Will @Mira cause human extinction by 2030?

Jul 12, 5:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.85%chance

93355930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8379

919

Will any of @Mira 's pets appear on the Dwarkesh Podcast by end of 2025?

Sep 18, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.6%chance

36340904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90470

2046

@Mira Stock

Apr 10, 1:15 PMApr 11, 4:59 AM

316874

OptionProbability

NO

YES

631

515

Will Mira Murati be CEO of OpenAI before 2029? (again)

May 27, 8:46 AMMar 5, 9:59 PM

7.51%chance

203223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

Will @Mira and @Catnee go on a date by 2026-01-01 (given no doom until then)?

Jun 6, 1:49 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

5.21%chance

121829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2243

822

Will Destiny talk to @Mira?

Jan 5, 12:17 AMJun 10, 6:59 AM

1%chance

61656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

62

Mira stocks

Apr 11, 7:19 PM

111445

OptionProbability

NO

YES

268

59

Which of Tumbles, Mira, or Strutheo will go to space first?

Mar 26, 5:51 PMApr 21, 6:59 AM

171345

OptionProbability

No one goes to space

Mira will be the first to space

Tumbles will be the first to space

Strutheo will be the first to space

78

14

4

4

Will Elon "pull a Mira" and flip the script, try to go to -1T after he reaches personal wealth of +1T?

Dec 24, 8:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

5.33%chance

8455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

383

107

Will Mira Murati be the CEO of Thinking Machines on January 1st 2026?

May 9, 8:30 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

93.03%chance

12442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

365

27

How soon after question creation will @Mira be banned from Eliezerfic?

Jun 28, 4:54 AMJul 5, 6:59 AM

2171

OptionProbability

Over 4 years/never/she leaves before that

3 months

6 months

1 month

1 year

2 years

3 years

87

3

3

2

2

2

2

Exit valuation of Mira (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

371

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$1B+

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

61

18

11

11

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