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Prediction markets for Mission

[ACX 2026] Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?

Jan 6, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.14%chance

6033309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7249

4812

Will there be a lethal disaster during the Artemis II mission?

Jan 14, 11:17 PMApr 1, 12:59 AM

7.06%chance

6923985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3627

276

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

8721359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1417

1073

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30.17%chance

385412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

973

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.72%chance

274647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

545

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.74%chance

304266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

921

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

373500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

935

Will there be at least 50 missions to the moon per year by 2035?

Feb 7, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.96%chance

202482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1832

546

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77.08%chance

221922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

151

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Dec 10, 7:12 AMDec 17, 10:59 AM

80%chance

161429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

537

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Mar 8, 2:27 PMDec 16, 2:59 AM

40.49%chance

21686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

947

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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