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Prediction markets for Mission

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

8720070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

1066

Will there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?

Apr 10, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.49%chance

919455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3159

1457

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.1%chance

375382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

943

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.63%chance

264278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

658

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

304166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

996

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

62.47%chance

373350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1269

769

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?

Dec 15, 1:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29.37%chance

282087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

852

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77%chance

211912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

261

151

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2060?

Dec 17, 11:09 AMFeb 5, 10:59 PM

44.46%chance

271801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1190

626

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Dec 10, 7:12 AMDec 17, 10:59 AM

80%chance

16929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

537

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Mar 8, 2:27 PMDec 16, 2:59 AM

39.42%chance

21668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

929

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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