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Prediction markets for MNX

When will MNX mainnet launch?

Feb 18, 9:37 PMDec 31, 9:35 PM

3656278

OptionProbability

Other

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

June 2026

May 2026

March 2026

April 2026

26

22

18

17

12

3

1

1

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Apr 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.37%chance

2835601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17614

5677

Will MNX have $1m in volume before September 2026?

Apr 9, 5:45 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

76.19%chance

2221066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17888

5590

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1816461

OptionProbability

Equity or index perps

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Non-AI prediction markets

Benchmarkets

41

30

12

9

8

Will MNX still be operating at EOY 2026?

Feb 18, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.46%chance

468667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3076

79

Will MNX hire a quant trader before June?

Apr 19, 10:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

85.28%chance

665209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2407

415

Which companies will Polymarket announce a partnership with in the next 12 months?

Oct 23, 5:05 PMOct 23, 5:04 PM

143262

OptionProbability

MLS

NFL

Fox News

ICC Cricket

BAE Systems

YouTube

Barstool Sports

Netflix

Kalshi

Caesars Entertainment

Bet365

Coinbase

mnx

ESPN

FIFA

Paramount

Manifold

Spotify

100

54

46

45

39

32

32

29

29

27

27

26

23

19

19

14

10

9

Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?

Apr 30, 11:10 PMJun 12, 11:04 PM

25.53%chance

443075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10652

7768

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62655

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

SWE-Bench

Other

FrontierMath

ARC-AGI

36

16

13

13

12

10

Will someone exploit MNX for all of their money (defined expansively)?

Feb 28, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.34%chance

122586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will MNX be integrated into Manifold by EOY?

Feb 19, 2:36 AMJan 1, 2:35 AM

16.5%chance

11986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

44

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