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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.28%chance

433011800253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25813

17955

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45%chance

21091878007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4796

3929

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

342228245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2044

1314

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.2%chance

1628213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21940

4558

Cori Bush wins 2026 MO-01 Democratic Primary?

Feb 6, 10:35 PMAug 4, 11:59 PM

33.59%chance

128620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

327

94

USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased?

Feb 28, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

73%chance

161862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

61

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

124

Will there be a major scandal or security breaches relating to the 2026 USA(J)MO?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMMay 1, 10:59 PM

48%chance

12233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

What will I get on the USA(J)MO

Feb 25, 11:05 PMFeb 26, 6:59 AM

388

OptionProbability

10 - 14

15 - 19

0 - 4

5 - 9

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 42

26

20

10

9

7

7

7

7

7

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

What 3-6 mo projects one should do to get a ML Engineer job

Mar 20, 9:09 AM

00

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