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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.4%chance

412611081602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28882

16663

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.81%chance

1279603195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

656217

28211

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44%chance

20031595840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4892

3847

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

293194677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2746

1002

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.79%chance

6342394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129891

76988

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

124

Will I qualify for USA(J)MO in 2026?

Jul 5, 4:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.53%chance

8214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

197

51

Will there be a major scandal or security breaches relating to the 2026 USA(J)MO?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMMay 1, 10:59 PM

35.51%chance

7131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

Will Mo Chara from Kneecap be found guilty of a terrism offence before the end of 2025?

May 23, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

What 3-6 mo projects one should do to get a ML Engineer job

Mar 20, 9:09 AM

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