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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.71%chance

475814557093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22541

18234

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.84%chance

22502116876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5192

3628

Moonshot AI IPO Market Cap (MNX)

Sep 11, 11:01 PM

141870026

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.28%chance

2186836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65409

1529

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

4112058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased?

Feb 28, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

73.4%chance

201949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

33.23%chance

11465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

115

Will MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again?

Jul 6, 2:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

9145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

35.64%chance

8125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

88

How many USA(J)MO qualifiers will South Carolina have in 2027

Jun 27, 1:44 AMMar 27, 3:59 AM

233

OptionProbability

1

2

0

3

>=4

32

28

13

13

13

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