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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.56%chance

448712289768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25609

18049

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43.91%chance

21791949513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4904

3843

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.87%chance

354261898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2038

1317

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

82.65%chance

415213145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16507

7941

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143218

70492

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.83%chance

1837402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22230

4498

Will I earn at least $25 per hour grading USA(J)MO?

Apr 3, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.55%chance

2918868

OptionVotes

NO

YES

823

12

Cori Bush wins 2026 MO-01 Democratic Primary?

Feb 6, 10:35 PMAug 4, 11:59 PM

48%chance

159816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

353

55

USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased?

Feb 28, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

69%chance

171880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

124

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

What 3-6 mo projects one should do to get a ML Engineer job

Mar 20, 9:09 AM

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