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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.36%chance

452112383355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27270

17322

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45.63%chance

21942002791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4736

3979

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

835518679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58873

10436

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.18%chance

369286789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2761

998

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.24%chance

2186145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

66101

1513

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.33%chance

9558194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144253

69986

USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased?

Feb 28, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

79.87%chance

191939

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

50

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

124

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

Will MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again?

Jul 6, 2:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.21%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

How many USA(J)MO qualifiers will South Carolina have in 2027

Jun 27, 1:44 AMMar 27, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

>=4

20

20

20

20

20

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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