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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.98%chance

419811291687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30202

16201

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

46.61%chance

20751812014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4643

4058

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.37%chance

318218151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2061

1304

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

7173329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24807

4031

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.68%chance

1014168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24110

4148

Will any of the 2026 USA(J)MO cutoffs be greater than 400?

Dec 23, 1:55 AMMar 14, 1:00 AM

45.69%chance

302359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

124

Will there be a major scandal or security breaches relating to the 2026 USA(J)MO?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMMay 1, 10:59 PM

35.51%chance

7131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

Will I qualify for MO in 2026?

Dec 9, 3:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

What 3-6 mo projects one should do to get a ML Engineer job

Mar 20, 9:09 AM

00

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