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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40%chance

386810035943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11008

10270

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

55%chance

18401292395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4798

3922

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114667

87209

Will USAMTS still be a way to qualify for USA(J)MO in the 2025-2026 MAA cycle?

Mar 5, 9:21 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

78.87%chance

231395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

52

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

75.67%chance

8339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

74

Will I qualify for USA(J)MO in 2026?

Jul 5, 4:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.38%chance

6171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

65

Mo Chara (Kneecap) guilty before 2027?

Jun 25, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

3145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Mo Chara from Kneecap be found guilty of a terrism offence before the end of 2025?

May 23, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

What 3-6 mo projects one should do to get a ML Engineer job

Mar 20, 9:09 AM

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