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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.99%chance

461513839634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23957

18854

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

50.99%chance

22222043115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4430

4254

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

376291827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2998

926

Moonshot AI IPO Market Cap (MNX)

Sep 11, 11:01 PM

888356

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.24%chance

2186145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

66101

1513

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144853

69696

USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased?

Feb 28, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

73.4%chance

201949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

124

Will MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again?

Jul 6, 2:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.98%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

82

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

How many USA(J)MO qualifiers will South Carolina have in 2027

Jun 27, 1:44 AMMar 27, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

>=4

20

20

20

20

20

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