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Prediction markets for MO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26%chance

442912024119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30183

16209

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

40.59%chance

21661928627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5249

3590

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.84%chance

832515935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58313

10496

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

351261778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1913

1396

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

66.99%chance

8957065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143123

70539

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.83%chance

1837402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22230

4498

Will I earn at least $25 per hour grading USA(J)MO?

Apr 3, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

99%chance

2817143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

Cori Bush wins 2026 MO-01 Democratic Primary?

Feb 6, 10:35 PMAug 4, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

128623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

325

97

USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased?

Feb 28, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

73%chance

161862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

61

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

124

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

What 3-6 mo projects one should do to get a ML Engineer job

Mar 20, 9:09 AM

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