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Prediction markets for Mobile

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3341

301

Will Kazakhstan experience mass mobilization, for any reasons, before end of 2026?

Jan 25, 9:30 AMDec 31, 9:28 AM

15.52%chance

252868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

429

Anthropic deploys ads in Claude web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:09 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

2%chance

162150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

39.01%chance

221777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will any popular mobile device feature a touchscreen with the ability to hover your finger above a screen element by the beginning of 2035?

Jan 6, 8:02 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

88.52%chance

261673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

903

OpenAI deploys ads in ChatGPT web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.78%chance

151401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

664

15

Before 2028, will popular mobile phones begin incorporating folding screens or other large moving parts?

Feb 9, 11:44 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.52%chance

12609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

793

Will Joe Biden be photographed using a mobility aid (e.g. a cane) before 2029?

Dec 21, 6:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.07%chance

22581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

967

Will any mobile game reach a player count of 700 million players before 2027, according to Wikipedia's list?

Apr 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.72%chance

15367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

890

Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026

Jun 1, 8:52 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

49.4%chance

6347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

988

100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027

Jun 19, 5:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

45.77%chance

6221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

919

Will I be eligible for an EU Youth Mobility visa before I turn 30?

Feb 21, 10:51 AMFeb 25, 11:59 PM

47.46%chance

367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

950

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