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Prediction markets for Modal

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.49%chance

475638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2881

1075

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

86.76%chance

414345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1937

689

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.89%chance

444068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3679

1257

What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?

Mar 25, 6:11 PMDec 31, 7:10 PM

422674

OptionProbability

It will be released by January 2027

It will be SOTA on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

It will be released by May 2026

It is GPT 5.5 (including any variations, as long as GPT 5.5 is in the name)

It will have a METR 50% of 20+ hours

It uses a novel architecture

It is an open source model

It is GPT 6

It will have a modality beyond text, image, and video

100

100

100

100

28

14

0

0

0

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.26%chance

101490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

947

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

Will there be a test-time scaling overhang for AI aesthetics?

Dec 29, 10:22 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

78.84%chance

3193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

940

Next modality added by FlixMobility

Jul 4, 2:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15

OptionProbability

Cars, e.g. Rideshare

Airplane

Boat

Micromobility

Other

29

18

18

18

18

Will AARO's next public report reference data collected from more than 3 distinct sensor modalities?

Jul 4, 2:53 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

28%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What physical modalities do your real life dreams usually have?

Mar 6, 9:48 PM

130

What year will an AI reach Expert AGI using different modalities?

Oct 2, 6:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40

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