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Prediction markets for Mode

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.49%chance

144026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Jan 22, 11:09 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

7.88%chance

122838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1993

166

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.31%chance

242358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

828

Will flying cars become a widespread mode of individual transportation before 2032?

Feb 7, 6:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.79%chance

211456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

824

Will commercial space travel become a common mode of transportation for the general public by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.38%chance

10774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

638

125

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

7771

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

37

25

12

9

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026

Jan 1, 4:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.98%chance

3677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

OpenAI releases a "fast" mode of their top-end coding model in February?

Feb 7, 11:37 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

23%chance

7214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will GPT-X have Galton mode?

Jan 11, 12:45 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

11.41%chance

6207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308

103

Will GPT-X have Joule mode?

Jan 9, 9:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

17.14%chance

5161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

86

Will "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 3, 9:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Will GPT-X have Geiger mode?

Jan 11, 12:32 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

16.94%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

60

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