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Prediction markets for Mode

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Jan 22, 11:09 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

2.48%chance

164595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3624

90

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.49%chance

144026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

By which year will Gaussian Splats be considered the dominant 3D game rendering mode?

Dec 12, 6:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

152807

OptionProbability

Never.

2029

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

75

25

23

20

8

1

1

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25%chance

252506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

769

Will flying cars become a widespread mode of individual transportation before 2032?

Feb 7, 6:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.79%chance

211456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

824

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

8823

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

33

27

13

8

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026

Jan 1, 4:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.98%chance

3677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will GPT-X have Fermi mode?

Jan 9, 4:16 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

9.8%chance

10302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

107

Will GPT-X have Heisenberg mode?

Jan 9, 9:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

13.8%chance

6116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

110

Will "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 3, 9:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.66%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

996

ChatGPT's voice mode allows custom MCPs before July 2026?

Dec 7, 9:28 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will Dave Gahan be the last standing member of Depeche Mode?

Nov 24, 9:56 AMDec 1, 12:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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