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Prediction markets for Modifi

Will there be a word that is widely accepted as a slur for genetically modified human beings by the end of 2033?

Apr 4, 8:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.69%chance

492756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2109

1918

Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025?

Oct 20, 1:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.34%chance

212216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3017

500

Will there be laws protecting genetically modified humans from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060?

Apr 4, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.75%chance

151031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

950

Will adversarially modified images produced by ANN be confirmed to weakly work on humans?

Aug 18, 11:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.03%chance

11495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

62

Which generation of LLM's will be able to invert a modified perfect binary tree (as modified by Taelin)?

Oct 12, 1:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7467

OptionProbability

GPT-8 era

GPT-7 era

GPT-6 era

GPT-4 era

GPT-5 era

GPT-3 era

74

65

63

59

53

26

Will organ transplant in humans using modified animal organs or chimeras be successful by 2030?

May 15, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

20461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

950

AI-driven tool capable of modifying binary executables per user prompt available by January 1, 2028

Nov 26, 1:52 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

29%chance

8381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?

Apr 24, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.64%chance

11292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

135

A common term is popular in english, like GMO but for genetically modified human beings by mid 2034

Apr 4, 7:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42.38%chance

12290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

245

Will the United States government abolish or substantially modify the student loan system before January 1, 2026?

Nov 8, 3:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.08%chance

4220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

35

EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023?

Jul 11, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.48%chance

7165

OptionProbability

NO

YES

273

79

When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?

Jun 30, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33

OptionProbability

Other

2060

2085

94

4

2

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