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Prediction markets for Modifi

Will there be a word that is widely accepted as a slur for genetically modified human beings by the end of 2033?

Apr 4, 8:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.69%chance

492756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2109

1918

Will there be laws protecting genetically modified humans from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060?

Apr 4, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.75%chance

151031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

950

Which generation of LLM's will be able to invert a modified perfect binary tree (as modified by Taelin)?

Oct 12, 1:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7467

OptionProbability

GPT-8 era

GPT-7 era

GPT-6 era

GPT-4 era

GPT-5 era

GPT-3 era

74

65

63

59

53

26

Will organ transplant in humans using modified animal organs or chimeras be successful by 2030?

May 15, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

20461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

950

AI-driven tool capable of modifying binary executables per user prompt available by January 1, 2028

Nov 26, 1:52 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

29%chance

8381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?

Apr 24, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.64%chance

11292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

135

A common term is popular in english, like GMO but for genetically modified human beings by mid 2034

Apr 4, 7:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42.38%chance

12290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

245

EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023?

Jul 11, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.48%chance

8167

OptionProbability

NO

YES

273

79

Will someone be prosecuted for a hate crime against a genetically modified human being in the USA by the end of 2060?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.92%chance

8105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

178

Will there be a human that is genetically modified to see in complete darkness by 2100?

Jun 12, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.25%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85

58

When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?

Jun 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

411

OptionProbability

Other

2070

2055

81

10

8

When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?

Jun 30, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33

OptionProbability

Other

2060

2085

94

4

2

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