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Top stories

Russia Restarts Druzhba Crude Flows to Hungary After Drone Strike

Russia Restarts Druzhba Crude Flows to Hungary After Drone Strike

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for MOL

Will "Whack-a-Mole is Not a Winnable Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 4:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.23%chance

42222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

936

Will Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug") be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.36%chance

272201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2014

871

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.22%chance

192163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

900

11

If/When we find aliens will there primary molecule for life be carbon

Apr 3, 10:36 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM

87.66%chance

211296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

861

Will Jon Zherka get convicted for child molestation before 2030?

Dec 18, 8:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.11%chance

121236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

729

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

14622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

406

Will Moldova hold a referendum on unification with Romania by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 3:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

8566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

792

Will Donald Trump continue to molest the money?

Sep 22, 2:53 AMJan 21, 2:49 AM

48.77%chance

4514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

613

101

Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?

Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

975

Will Andrei Molodkin's "Dead Man's Switch" be activated and destroy at least $10 million dollars of artwork?

Feb 14, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.22%chance

6239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

99

Will a naked mole rat reach > 55 years of age by 2040?

Nov 10, 7:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.23%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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