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Top stories

Druzhba Pipeline Flows to Hungary, Slovakia Resume After Ukrainian Strike Halted Supply

Druzhba Pipeline Flows to Hungary, Slovakia Resume After Ukrainian Strike Halted Supply

Authors

25

2 days ago

Prediction markets for MOL

What will TSLABull (@MolbyDick) do before 2026?

Oct 14, 11:24 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

1211108

OptionProbability

Leave a comment on Manifold

Create a question on Manifold

Create a question on Manifold about the price of TSLA stock

Buy 100,000+ shares on a question on Manifold

Make 10,000+ profit on a resolved question on Manifold

Delete Manifold account

100

100

100

100

100

14

Will Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug") be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.36%chance

272201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2014

871

Russia launches a military incursion into Moldova before January 1, 2026

Mar 13, 4:20 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

18.62%chance

181564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

820

107

If/When we find aliens will there primary molecule for life be carbon

Apr 3, 10:36 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM

87.66%chance

211296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

861

Will Jon Zherka get convicted for child molestation before 2030?

Dec 18, 8:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.6%chance

11686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

994

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

Outcome of Molly White's FEC complaint vs. Coinbase (campaign contributions)

Aug 9, 11:39 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

4561

OptionProbability

FEC opens investigation but takes no action, or is stopped by court decision

FEC reaches settlement

FEC dismisses complaint without investigation

FEC imposes fines, but does not refer to DOJ

FEC refers to DOJ (with or without fines)

29

26

24

15

6

Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?

Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

975

Wavelet-based electrostatics solver in molecular dynamics code? (Before Nov 2026)

Nov 9, 9:09 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

46.19%chance

3206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

53

Will Andrei Molodkin's "Dead Man's Switch" be activated and destroy at least $10 million dollars of artwork?

Feb 14, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.91%chance

589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

118

Will Ethan Mollick create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 5:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.96%chance

751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

145

Will Lada Nuzhna and Jose Luis Ricon both raise a pet naked mole rat together?

Jun 4, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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