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Top stories

Russia Restarts Druzhba Crude Flows to Hungary After Drone Strike

Russia Restarts Druzhba Crude Flows to Hungary After Drone Strike

Authors

11

10 months ago

Prediction markets for MOL

Will "Whack-a-Mole is Not a Winnable Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 4:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.23%chance

42222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

936

Will Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug") be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.36%chance

272201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2014

871

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.54%chance

192063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

800

13

If/When we find aliens will there primary molecule for life be carbon

Apr 3, 10:36 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM

87.66%chance

211296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

861

Will Jon Zherka get convicted for child molestation before 2030?

Dec 18, 8:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.21%chance

12986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

826

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

14622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

406

Will Donald Trump continue to molest the money?

Sep 22, 2:53 AMJan 21, 2:49 AM

48.77%chance

4514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

695

183

Will Moldova hold a referendum on unification with Romania by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 3:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

7316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

901

Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?

Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

975

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Which country will cese to exist first | Taiwan vs Moldova | Country faceoff

Jan 16, 8:59 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Taiwan

Moldova

50

50

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