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Top stories

Russia Restarts Druzhba Crude Flows to Hungary After Drone Strike

Russia Restarts Druzhba Crude Flows to Hungary After Drone Strike

Authors

11

3 months ago

Prediction markets for MOL

Russia launches a military incursion into Moldova before January 1, 2026

Mar 13, 4:20 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

3.76%chance

242793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1559

35

Will Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug") be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.36%chance

272201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2014

871

If/When we find aliens will there primary molecule for life be carbon

Apr 3, 10:36 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM

87.66%chance

211296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

861

Will Jon Zherka get convicted for child molestation before 2030?

Dec 18, 8:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.21%chance

12986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

826

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

Outcome of Molly White's FEC complaint vs. Coinbase (campaign contributions)

Aug 9, 11:39 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

4561

OptionProbability

FEC opens investigation but takes no action, or is stopped by court decision

FEC reaches settlement

FEC dismisses complaint without investigation

FEC imposes fines, but does not refer to DOJ

FEC refers to DOJ (with or without fines)

29

26

24

15

6

Will Donald Trump continue to molest the money?

Sep 22, 2:53 AMJan 21, 2:49 AM

66.38%chance

4405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1405

712

Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?

Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

975

Who is the mole in the anniversary season of Wie is de Mol 2025? (Dutch TV show)

Nov 3, 3:44 PMDec 20, 11:59 PM

1106

OptionProbability

Jurre Geluk

Loes Haverkort

Kim Pieters

Nathan Rutjes

Merel Westrik

Anne-Marie Jung

Richard Groenendijk

Imanuelle Grives

Sahil Amar Aïssa

Dennis Weening

Other

25

13

9

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

Will a naked mole rat reach > 55 years of age by 2040?

Nov 10, 7:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.23%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

Will Lada Nuzhna and Jose Luis Ricon both raise a pet naked mole rat together?

Jun 4, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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