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Prediction markets for MOL
Will "Whack-a-Mole is Not a Winnable Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 21, 4:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.23%chance
42222
OptionVotes
1499
936
Will Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug") be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 2, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.36%chance
272201
OptionVotes
2014
871
OptionVotes
900
11
If/When we find aliens will there primary molecule for life be carbon
Apr 3, 10:36 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM
87.66%chance
211296
OptionVotes
1409
861
Will Jon Zherka get convicted for child molestation before 2030?
Dec 18, 8:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
25.11%chance
121236
OptionVotes
1544
729
Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
34.7%chance
14622
OptionVotes
1157
406
Will Moldova hold a referendum on unification with Romania by the end of 2027?
Apr 20, 3:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.13%chance
8566
OptionVotes
1418
792
OptionVotes
613
101
Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?
Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20%chance
10274
OptionVotes
1035
975
Will Andrei Molodkin's "Dead Man's Switch" be activated and destroy at least $10 million dollars of artwork?
Feb 14, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
8.22%chance
6239
OptionVotes
382
99
OptionVotes
105
78
Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn
Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100