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Prediction markets for Momentum

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.95%chance

11853517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1563

640

Will there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2035?

May 1, 9:11 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM

10.94%chance

202340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

947

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

112283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

Will HTMX gain significant traction before the end of 2025?

Oct 8, 11:22 AMJan 3, 2:29 AM

36.08%chance

231742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

784

Will everyone “Return To Office” (RTO) in 2025?

Dec 19, 3:45 PMDec 31, 4:00 AM

18.13%chance

161259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2125

471

Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100

Nov 17, 7:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.51%chance

201005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

948

Will "Momentum of Light in Glass" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 2:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

1700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Will there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2063?

May 28, 3:20 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

64.23%chance

14284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

856

Wouldliker's sound daily uses exceed 6,500 by December 1, 2025

Nov 20, 2:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.16%chance

1155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.8%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

76

Will "Momentum of Light in Glass" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 2:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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