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Prediction markets for Monee

Will Trump successfully appeal the hush money case?

Apr 17, 12:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

55.28%chance

7863089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

497

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.3%chance

3523380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2385

405

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.22%chance

808788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

712

Will the Spaceballs sequel be called "Spaceballs 2: The Search for More Money"?

Jun 19, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

228459

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Sequel not released before 2035

73

21

6

Will Apple face any non-monetary consequences in United States of America v. Apple Inc.?

Mar 21, 3:05 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

28%chance

725757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1909

367

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?

Sep 9, 7:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

95.86%chance

193883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3559

76

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.1%chance

8909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?

Mar 25, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.94%chance

29705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

975

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.8%chance

8593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

1115

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

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