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Prediction markets for Money Market

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.59%chance

3423330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2335

416

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50.76%chance

778566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

870

Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?

Mar 7, 7:01 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

71.37%chance

837433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1622

218

If I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?

Jan 11, 1:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.48%chance

112192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3090

324

Will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029 conditional on who wins the presidential election?

Mar 26, 4:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71036

OptionProbability

Republican President / Legal

Republican President / No Change

Democrat President / Legal

Democrat President / No Change

81

18

1

1

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.1%chance

8909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Will Manifold have real money markets with at least 1% of the active liquidity of Polymarket by end of 2025?

Jan 12, 9:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.46%chance

11618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

630

16

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?

Mar 25, 3:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13517

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

2028 or 2029

2026 or 2027

2024 or 2025

43

30

25

2

Will any real money prediction market let you bet using indices rather than fiat/crypto by 2025?

Feb 14, 9:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

9407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

470

105

Real money political prediction markets will be legal in the US for a month before 2030

Sep 24, 3:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.1%chance

9318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

81

Will someone be charged for using a real-money prediction market in Singapore by 2033 Jan?

Jan 4, 8:27 AMJan 4, 3:59 AM

71.13%chance

7101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

121

Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ?

Apr 3, 4:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.86%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

97

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