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Prediction markets for Moni

Is Manifold Monitoring the Situation in 2026? [ROUND 2]

Feb 28, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.31%chance

123445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

When will Apple release a blood glucose monitor?

Jan 30, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:24 PM

6997

OptionProbability

Not released by 2030

2028

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

39

24

21

8

5

1

1

Will I use VR computer monitors for 25%+ of my work screentime by 2027?

Nov 4, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.12%chance

27990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

884

Will I be able to get a ~140x50cm curved monitor before 2028?

Nov 27, 4:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.12%chance

4536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

688

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

In what years will CoT monitoring fail for frontier AI?

Sep 8, 11:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6182

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2050

2027

2026

2025

52

52

46

46

35

20

4

Will Henry Shevlin be compensated in some form by polymarket for his situation monitoring bar idea?

Mar 19, 12:57 PMSep 20, 11:57 AM

58.06%chance

6113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

What will the UK's CIVICUS Monitor rating be for the year 2026?

Apr 12, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

251

OptionProbability

Obstructed

Narrowed

Repressed

Open

Closed

48

17

17

9

9

Will "Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

866

What will Hungary's CIVICUS Monitor rating be for the year 2027?

Apr 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

234

OptionProbability

Obstructed

Repressed

Open

Narrowed

Closed

41

28

10

10

10

Longtermist Policymakers create mass-surveillance civilisational risk monitoring programme by 1st Jan 2028

Aug 11, 11:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.31%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

Will Noisebridge get any external monitors for laptops by EOY2027?

Dec 24, 6:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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