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Prediction markets for Moni

Is Manifold Monitoring the Situation in 2026? [ROUND 2]

Feb 28, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.31%chance

123445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Mar 18, 5:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

361169

OptionProbability

European Union

Spain

Other

China (mainland)

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Canada

The UK

South Korea

USA

58

11

11

10

8

1

1

1

0

When will Apple release a blood glucose monitor?

Jan 30, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:24 PM

6997

OptionProbability

Not released by 2030

2028

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

39

24

21

8

5

1

1

Will I use VR computer monitors for 25%+ of my work screentime by 2027?

Nov 4, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.12%chance

27990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

884

Will I be able to get a ~140x50cm curved monitor before 2028?

Nov 27, 4:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.12%chance

4536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

688

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

Will an Apple Watch with no-prick blood glucose monitoring come out by 2029?

May 27, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.59%chance

9339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

118

Will "Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

866

What will Hungary's CIVICUS Monitor rating be for the year 2027?

Apr 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

234

OptionProbability

Obstructed

Repressed

Open

Narrowed

Closed

41

28

10

10

10

Exit valuation of Monitaur (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?

Jan 17, 3:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54%chance

38

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

66

Will Ben Nashman (the TKS Thiel Fellow) create a sensor for continual lipid (or inflammatory marker) monitoring?

Apr 3, 3:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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