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Prediction markets for Moni

Is Manifold Monitoring the Situation in 2026?

Jan 3, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

211456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Mar 18, 5:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

331021

OptionProbability

European Union

China (mainland)

Other

The UK

South Korea

Canada

USA

63

22

9

3

2

1

0

When will Apple release a blood glucose monitor?

Jan 30, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:24 PM

6997

OptionProbability

Not released by 2030

2028

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

39

24

21

8

5

1

1

Will I use VR computer monitors for 25%+ of my work screentime by 2027?

Nov 4, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.12%chance

27990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

884

Will I be able to get a ~140x50cm curved monitor before 2028?

Nov 27, 4:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.12%chance

4536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

688

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

Will Manifold argue about whether Manifold is Monitoring the Situation?

Jan 5, 7:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.83%chance

4104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will "Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

866

Longtermist Policymakers create mass-surveillance civilisational risk monitoring programme by 1st Jan 2028

Aug 11, 11:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.31%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?

Jan 17, 3:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54%chance

38

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

66

Will Noisebridge get any external monitors for laptops by EOY2027?

Dec 24, 6:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will Ben Nashman (the TKS Thiel Fellow) create a sensor for continual lipid (or inflammatory marker) monitoring?

Apr 3, 3:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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