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Prediction markets for Moonshot AI

Moonshot AI IPO Market Cap (MNX)

Sep 11, 11:01 PM

141870026

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

158573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Kimi Moonshoot IPO before 2028?

Jul 16, 10:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.52%chance

345020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2251

444

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

73325

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

SenseTime

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Tencent

Baidu

Lenovo

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Cambricon

Deepseek

MiniMax

17

17

17

12

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

8

8

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

271487

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepSeek

Meta

xAI

Moonshot AI

Z.ai

Other

Mistral AI

Alibaba

MiniMax

46

30

19

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.89%chance

211226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

711

Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?

Apr 14, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.6%chance

8535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.14%chance

7174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Which LLM Maker will have the largest Emotional Intelligence Benchmark Elo Score on https://eqbench.com on Jan 1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1109

OptionProbability

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

Nous Research (E.g. Hermes series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Other

44

32

5

5

5

5

5

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7107

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Zhipu / Z.ai

Other (any company not listed above)

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

Moonshot AI

Anthropic

OpenAI

StepFun

25

9

9

8

7

7

7

7

7

5

5

5

Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Alibaba (E.g. Qwen series)

Mistral AI (E.g. Mistral series)

DeepSeek (E.g. deepseek series)

Other

34

31

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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