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Prediction markets for Moore Threads

In which year will Moore's Law come to an end? (If it ever does?)

Oct 7, 5:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

101038

OptionProbability

2023

2025

2028

2029

Other

2026

2030

2031

2032

2022

2027

Already happened before 2022 (please argue why)

2024

Not before 2033 (or at all)

14

13

8

8

7

7

7

7

7

6

5

5

4

3

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.11%chance

3111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

73

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