MOST News

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

480364042

OptionVotes

YES

2865

2074

Most valuable company at the end of 2025?

Dec 24, 1:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

253276631

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Apple

Alphabet (Google)

Microsoft

Amazon

Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2025?

Dec 29, 5:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

132180275

OptionProbability

Ufo361

Paula Hartmann

Bonez MC

Lil Peep

Capital Bra

Juice WRLD

Gzuz

makko

Samra

Other

What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2026?

Dec 5, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2030407

OptionProbability

0.21-0.5%

0-0.2%

0.51-1%

1.01-2%

5.01-10%

>10%

2.01-5%

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

728398

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

Top 5 most useful tests for AGI

Oct 17, 4:01 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

3318059

OptionProbability

HCAST - METR

CAIS Remote Labor Index

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

ARC-AGI (any version)

GDPval https://openai.com/index/gdpval

PaperBench https://openai.com/index/paperbench

Opinion poll of Manifold userbase

Wozniak Coffee Test (requires controlling a robot)

Build, debug and test until its of sufficient quality, a complex piece of software like a mobile app including a backend service

Predict the output of an arbitrary set of NAND gates and inputs

Beating Pokemon games

Manually rearrange and overlap 100 random images in an image editor (with no other kinds of edits) to create a recognizable portrait

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

Nov 24, 2:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18615865

OptionProbability

France

Other

Israel

UAE

Japan

India

Canada

South Korea

Germany

Russia

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.07%chance

18312142

OptionVotes

YES

3887

1744

Will human mathematicians be mostly obsolete by 2030?

Jul 20, 3:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

657939

OptionVotes

YES

1324

338

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

285164

OptionVotes

YES

3696

271

Is it (mostly) the phones?

Mar 10, 5:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.34%chance

872820

OptionVotes

YES

2668

1772

Most popular kids curtain design theme in Abu Dhabi stores

Jan 17, 9:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

OptionProbability

Other

MOST News

Prediction markets for MOST

Prediction markets for MOST

Prediction markets for MOST

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Most valuable company at the end of 2025?

Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2025?

What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2026?

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Top 5 most useful tests for AGI

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Will human mathematicians be mostly obsolete by 2030?

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Is it (mostly) the phones?

Most popular kids curtain design theme in Abu Dhabi stores

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