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Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

8.27%chance

125474759

OptionVotes

YES

3330

300

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.93%chance

455325656

OptionVotes

YES

2659

2610

Most valuable company at the end of 2025?

Dec 24, 1:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

154112883

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Apple

Alphabet (Google)

TSMC

Amazon

Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2025?

Dec 29, 5:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

119107864

OptionProbability

Paula Hartmann

Ufo361

Bonez MC

Samra

Lil Peep

Capital Bra

Juice WRLD

Gzuz

makko

Other

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

57.37%chance

12234104

OptionVotes

YES

1611

636

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.07%chance

18312142

OptionVotes

YES

3887

1744

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

611111

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

Tennis player(s) to win the most Grand Slam tournaments (singles) in 2025?

Sep 2, 6:28 PMSep 30, 8:59 PM

289289

OptionProbability

🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner

🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz

🇵🇱 Iga Swiatek

🇺🇸 Coco Gauff

Madison Keys

🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic

🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev

Daniil Medvedev

Aryna Sabalenka

🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina

Other

🇮🇹 Jasmine Paolini

Will human mathematicians be mostly obsolete by 2030?

Jul 20, 3:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

647542

OptionVotes

YES

1197

611

Top 5 most useful tests for AGI

Oct 17, 4:01 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

264461

OptionProbability

Build, debug and test until its of sufficient quality, a complex piece of software like a mobile app including a backend service

Beating Pokemon games

HCAST - METR

Manually rearrange and overlap 100 random images in an image editor (with no other kinds of edits) to create a recognizable portrait

ARC-AGI (any version)

Wozniak Coffee Test (requires controlling a robot)

Opinion poll of Manifold userbase

Predict the output of an arbitrary set of NAND gates and inputs

Will most people be dating robot cat girls in 15 years?

Apr 7, 7:37 PMApr 7, 11:59 PM

2%chance

324001

OptionVotes

YES

700

Most popular kids curtain design theme in Abu Dhabi stores

Jan 17, 9:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

OptionProbability

Other

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Prediction markets for MOST

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Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Most valuable company at the end of 2025?

Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2025?

Will *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Tennis player(s) to win the most Grand Slam tournaments (singles) in 2025?

Will human mathematicians be mostly obsolete by 2030?

Top 5 most useful tests for AGI

Will most people be dating robot cat girls in 15 years?

Most popular kids curtain design theme in Abu Dhabi stores

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Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?