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Prediction markets for MOST

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

555496179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3523

1103

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1%chance

24173148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99499

1005

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

48%chance

13038089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1755

475

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

732223

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

84

60

15

1

Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2026?

Dec 28, 11:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4228420

OptionProbability

Ufo361

Paula Hartmann

Other

Bonez

Samra

Capital Bra

72

14

9

3

1

1

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.36%chance

8918719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4825

4292

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516354

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

17

13

13

10

10

7

6

5

1

1

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

Nov 24, 2:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18615865

OptionProbability

UK

France

Other

Israel

UAE

Japan

India

Canada

South Korea

Germany

Russia

31

28

10

9

7

6

3

2

2

1

1

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64%chance

18313303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3081

2111

Will human mathematicians be mostly obsolete by 2030?

Jul 20, 3:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.24%chance

657989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1374

272

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4447

225

Is it (mostly) the phones?

Mar 10, 5:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.7%chance

872845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2693

1760

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