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Most Favored Nation News

    Prediction markets for Most Favored Nation

    OptionProbability

    "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

    empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

    "lower taxes"

    "defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

    "increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

    "open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

    "order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

    "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

    "ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

    "reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

    "REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

    "stop all COVID mandates"

    "keep men out of women’s sports"

    "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

    "more jobs for American workers"

    "deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

    "choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

    "get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

    "cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

    "strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

    "uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

    "bigger paychecks"

    "implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

    "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

    "build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

    "surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

    "adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

    "banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

    "banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

    "a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

    "enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

    "cut the number of school administrators"

    "stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

    declassify the 'Epstein files'

    "pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

    "deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

    "veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

    "increase fairness through price transparency"

    "passing a digital bill of rights"

    "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

    "get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

    "continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

    "create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

    "protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

    "firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

    "ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

    "end surprise medical billing"

    "ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

    "reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

    "reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

    "impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

    "a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

    "a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

    "implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

    "a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

    "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"

    100

    88

    82

    74

    71

    71

    66

    63

    63

    63

    63

    58

    57

    56

    53

    50

    47

    45

    45

    44

    44

    42

    42

    42

    42

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    37

    36

    36

    35

    34

    31

    31

    31

    30

    28

    27

    27

    26

    26

    24

    23

    19

    18

    18

    17

    16

    16

    13

    11

    7

    0

    Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

    Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM
    2.3%chance
    446791

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3057

    1039

    OptionProbability

    Republicans

    Democrats

    Independents

    52

    48

    0

    US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

    Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM
    87.98%chance
    152342

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2705

    370

    Will Daryl Morey win an NBA title as a team executive before 2035?

    Feb 10, 8:50 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM
    46.26%chance
    9986

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    392

    200

    Will there be a new currency union in Africa by 2040?

    Sep 4, 9:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    67.77%chance
    10567

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    170

    39

    OptionProbability

    Settlement

    Judgement in favor of the Justice Department

    Judgement in favor of TicketMaster/Live Nation

    Dismissal / dropped

    Mistrial

    56

    23

    11

    5

    5

    Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

    Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    24.28%chance
    7315

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1051

    819

    Giant Panda born in a United States zoo in 2026

    Jan 16, 8:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    25%chance
    6100

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    173

    58

    OptionProbability

    Jeffrey Sachs

    Huey Li (and the news)

    SerpentZA

    Laowhy86

    Nicholas Kristof

    Michael Pettis

    Peter Hessler

    James Fallows

    Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

    Liziqi

    Nathan Rich

    Living in China

    Jerry Kowal

    Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

    Asia Society Policy Institute

    Yale Center Beijing

    Brookings Institution (China Center)

    Blondie in China

    Elon Musk

    Bill Bishop, Sinocism

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

    40

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    150

    67

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