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Prediction markets for Most Favored Nation
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
Jan 24, 11:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
898008
OptionProbability
100
88
82
74
71
71
66
63
63
63
63
58
57
56
53
50
47
45
45
44
44
42
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
39
37
36
36
35
34
31
31
31
30
28
27
27
26
26
24
23
19
18
18
17
16
16
13
11
7
0
OptionVotes
3057
1039
OptionProbability
52
48
0
US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?
Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM
87.98%chance
152342
OptionVotes
2705
370
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63%chance
202212
OptionVotes
1307
768
Will Daryl Morey win an NBA title as a team executive before 2035?
Feb 10, 8:50 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM
46.26%chance
9986
OptionVotes
392
200
OptionVotes
170
39
What will be the outcome of the TicketMaster/Live Nation anti-trust lawsuit by the DoJ?
Apr 16, 4:46 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM
14507
OptionProbability
56
23
11
5
5
OptionVotes
1051
819
OptionVotes
173
58
Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?
Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
570
OptionProbability
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
40
Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?
Mar 17, 5:05 AMDec 31, 6:04 AM
69.23%chance
150
OptionVotes
150
67

