Motive News

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Dec 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

662457409

OptionProbability

A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm

An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States

Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims

An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies

Chronic Back Pain

Mental illness

Radical Leftism

Fame

Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare

Business

Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.

Genetic predisposition (Italian)

Targeted hit/contract killing

brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic

Zizian Murder Cult member

Personal conflict with CEO

Random act of violence

Was seizure of the devices of Shayne Coplan, Polymarket CEO, motivated by political retribution?

Nov 13, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.58%chance

129368

OptionVotes

YES

1662

602

Was the Charlie Kirk Shooter primarily motivated by Kirk’s stance on Israel?

Sep 10, 8:46 PMJan 17, 9:45 PM

4.12%chance

294934

OptionVotes

YES

4823

207

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Jan 21, 6:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

57.16%chance

132002

OptionVotes

YES

1155

866

Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.54%chance

26757

OptionVotes

YES

1009

982

Religiously motivated dog massacre in EU country before the end of 2026?

Jul 13, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.69%chance

18534

OptionVotes

YES

373

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

491

223

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

Nov 4, 1:59 PMSep 10, 12:18 PM

18.1%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

213

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE?

Feb 12, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13110

OptionProbability

Expand his political influence and connections in general

Remove regulations that affect his business interests

Strategic business opportunities through policy influence

Build a public profile as a government reformer

Reduce government bureaucracy and spending

Drive technological innovation in government operations

Target a specific person or a group of just a few people he dislikes

Promote his business interests with additional enforcement efforts rather than just reductions

Personal entertainment and meme culture participation

Support and promote Dogecoin cryptocurrency

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Sep 9, 3:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5106

OptionProbability

It lacked the means

It lacked the motive

It lacked the opportunity

Gowers releases point-and-click structured motivated proof software in one year?

Sep 25, 5:08 AMSep 25, 5:04 AM

29.39%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

155

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What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Was seizure of the devices of Shayne Coplan, Polymarket CEO, motivated by political retribution?

Was the Charlie Kirk Shooter primarily motivated by Kirk’s stance on Israel?

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Religiously motivated dog massacre in EU country before the end of 2026?

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE?

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Gowers releases point-and-click structured motivated proof software in one year?

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