Motive News

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Dec 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

667472675

OptionProbability

A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm

An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States

Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims

An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies

Mental illness

Chronic Back Pain

Radical Leftism

Fame

Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare

Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.

Business

Targeted hit/contract killing

Genetic predisposition (Italian)

Zizian Murder Cult member

Personal conflict with CEO

brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic

Random act of violence

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Jan 21, 6:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

56.6%chance

142012

OptionVotes

YES

1142

876

Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.16%chance

26856

OptionVotes

YES

1230

951

Religiously motivated dog massacre in EU country before the end of 2026?

Jul 13, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.69%chance

18534

OptionVotes

YES

373

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

491

223

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

Nov 4, 1:59 PMSep 10, 12:18 PM

24.66%chance

12303

OptionVotes

YES

175

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE?

Feb 12, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13110

OptionProbability

Expand his political influence and connections in general

Remove regulations that affect his business interests

Strategic business opportunities through policy influence

Build a public profile as a government reformer

Reduce government bureaucracy and spending

Drive technological innovation in government operations

Target a specific person or a group of just a few people he dislikes

Promote his business interests with additional enforcement efforts rather than just reductions

Personal entertainment and meme culture participation

Support and promote Dogecoin cryptocurrency

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Sep 9, 3:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5106

OptionProbability

It lacked the means

It lacked the motive

It lacked the opportunity

Gowers releases point-and-click structured motivated proof software in one year?

Sep 25, 5:08 AMSep 25, 5:04 AM

29.39%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

155

Profit-seekers, what motivates you to increase your profit?

Apr 4, 4:35 AM

170

What was a greater motivating factor for the 10/7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel: self-determination or anti-Semitism?

Mar 22, 3:10 PM

270

Motive News

Prediction markets for Motive

Prediction markets for Motive

Prediction markets for Motive

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Religiously motivated dog massacre in EU country before the end of 2026?

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE?

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Gowers releases point-and-click structured motivated proof software in one year?

Profit-seekers, what motivates you to increase your profit?

What was a greater motivating factor for the 10/7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel: self-determination or anti-Semitism?

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