Motive News

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Dec 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

660451333

OptionProbability

A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm

Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims

An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States

An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies

Chronic Back Pain

Mental illness

Fame

Radical Leftism

Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare

Zizian Murder Cult member

Business

Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.

Genetic predisposition (Italian)

Targeted hit/contract killing

brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic

Personal conflict with CEO

Random act of violence

Was seizure of the devices of Shayne Coplan, Polymarket CEO, motivated by political retribution?

Nov 13, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.19%chance

116339

OptionVotes

YES

3891

257

What were the motives of the Magdeburg Christmas Market terror attacker? (Germany, 20 December 2024)

Dec 21, 12:54 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

234639

OptionProbability

Terrorism/Extremism - Far right

Political Statement

Mental Health Crisis

Terrorism/Extremism - Islamic

Personal Grievance

Religious Conflict

Other

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Jan 21, 6:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

54.98%chance

121952

OptionVotes

YES

1105

905

What will be considered true about the motivations behind the cybertruck/Trump tower fireworks explosion?

Jan 4, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

121035

OptionProbability

It was carried out specifically to draw attention to whistleblower claims.

It was intended to maximize media coverage with minimal civilian harm.

Matt Livelsberger aimed to commit suicide.

Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

79.32%chance

25747

OptionVotes

YES

1046

972

Will it be confirmed before 2026 that there was a letter to the board of OpenAI motivated by AI breakthrough?

Nov 23, 12:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.21%chance

3670

OptionVotes

YES

758

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

491

223

Religiously motivated dog massacre in EU country before the end of 2026?

Jul 13, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.5%chance

14314

OptionVotes

YES

158

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE?

Feb 12, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13110

OptionProbability

Expand his political influence and connections in general

Remove regulations that affect his business interests

Strategic business opportunities through policy influence

Build a public profile as a government reformer

Reduce government bureaucracy and spending

Drive technological innovation in government operations

Target a specific person or a group of just a few people he dislikes

Promote his business interests with additional enforcement efforts rather than just reductions

Personal entertainment and meme culture participation

Support and promote Dogecoin cryptocurrency

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Sep 9, 3:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5106

OptionProbability

It lacked the means

It lacked the motive

It lacked the opportunity

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What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Was seizure of the devices of Shayne Coplan, Polymarket CEO, motivated by political retribution?

What were the motives of the Magdeburg Christmas Market terror attacker? (Germany, 20 December 2024)

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

What will be considered true about the motivations behind the cybertruck/Trump tower fireworks explosion?

Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Will it be confirmed before 2026 that there was a letter to the board of OpenAI motivated by AI breakthrough?

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Religiously motivated dog massacre in EU country before the end of 2026?

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE?

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

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