MOU News

Will the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?

Oct 2, 6:28 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

1.81%chance

3219781

OptionVotes

YES

7365

136

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.25%chance

442537

OptionVotes

YES

1290

770

Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss

Feb 7, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57%chance

341957

OptionVotes

YES

1026

928

[PROP BETS] New US-Iran Peace Talks

Aug 3, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101779

OptionProbability

Jared Kushner participates in talks

Trump launches new strikes on Iran before any deal is signed

Trump posts calling a deal "the greatest" before it's actually signed

Trump explicitly says he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for it

Trump declares the MOU "over" again before a final deal

Iran charges tolls or fees on Strait of Hormuz shipping

Multinational body created to govern the Strait

Iran agrees to IAEA inspector access to nuclear sites

Formal reconstruction fund for Iran is established

US lifts any sanctions on Iran before 2027

Israel publicly endorses a US-Iran agreement

Iran agrees to zero uranium enrichment

New Iranian Supreme Leader is named before a deal is finalized

Talks actually begin on Monday, August 4

Strait of Hormuz fully reopened to commercial shipping by Oct 1

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

1745

666

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Apr 11, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.49%chance

7829

OptionVotes

YES

1805

554

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

YES

1327

804

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Sep 27, 12:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.78%chance

15654

OptionVotes

YES

1094

896

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

Dec 27, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.54%chance

16650

OptionVotes

YES

1162

937

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.12%chance

18387

OptionVotes

YES

1054

930

Will "Mourning a life without AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.98%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

1270

962

What will happen in US/Iran peace negotiations

May 26, 12:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9276

OptionProbability

A MOU is signed to begin negotiations

Trump allows Iran to keep its Uranium

The US announces it is walking away from a deal

The war restarts

Trump allows Iran to charge fees on ships in the Strait

Iran announces it is walking away from a deal

The Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened without fees

A final peace deal is signed

Israel agrees to stop fighting in Lebanon

Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium

100

MOU News

Prediction markets for MOU

Prediction markets for MOU

Prediction markets for MOU

Will the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss

[PROP BETS] New US-Iran Peace Talks

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Will "Mourning a life without AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What will happen in US/Iran peace negotiations

Latest stories