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Prediction markets for MOU

Will I need to type and move the mouse while editing code at the end of 2025?

Sep 16, 5:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.63%chance

333376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2940

340

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.97%chance

422357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

774

Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact?

Nov 20, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.75%chance

262159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3245

1620

Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss

Feb 7, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.79%chance

311790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

967

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.14%chance

291516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

662

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Sep 27, 12:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.78%chance

15654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

896

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

Dec 27, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.54%chance

16650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

937

Will POWDR announce the sale of a ski area to Vail, Alterra, Mountain Capital Partners, or Boyne by summer 2026?

Aug 23, 2:42 AMSep 27, 3:59 AM

56%chance

4612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

89

Will "Mourning a life without AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.98%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

962

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.54%chance

17295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

842

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.87%chance

4261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

760

403

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