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Prediction markets for MOU

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.88%chance

422382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

759

Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss

Feb 7, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57%chance

341957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

928

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Over 1.5 red cards issued for mouth covering at 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Apr 29, 2:12 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

24.72%chance

10985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

573

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Apr 11, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.52%chance

6779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1755

570

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Sep 27, 12:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.78%chance

15654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

896

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

Dec 27, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.54%chance

16650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

937

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.58%chance

17337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

880

Will "Mourning a life without AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.98%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

962

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.77%chance

4266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

765

402

Will my new Zowie mouse survive five years?

Jun 28, 8:07 PMJun 28, 9:59 PM

45.88%chance

679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

512

490

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