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Prediction markets for MOU

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.88%chance

422382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

759

Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss

Feb 7, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57%chance

341957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

928

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Over 1.5 red cards issued for mouth covering at 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Apr 29, 2:12 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

35.94%chance

161468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

749

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Apr 11, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.52%chance

6779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1755

570

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Sep 27, 12:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.78%chance

15654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

896

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

Dec 27, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.54%chance

16650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

937

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.58%chance

17337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

880

Will "Mourning a life without AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.98%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

962

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.77%chance

4266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

765

402

What will happen in US/Iran peace negotiations

May 26, 12:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7246

OptionProbability

A MOU is signed to begin negotiations

Trump allows Iran to keep its Uranium

The US announces it is walking away from a deal

The Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened without fees

The war restarts

Trump allows Iran to charge fees on ships in the Strait

Iran announces it is walking away from a deal

A final peace deal is signed

Israel agrees to stop fighting in Lebanon

Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium

100

71

66

50

50

49

46

34

34

24

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