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Prediction markets for MOU

Is there secret treasure at the giant X of Reverse Mountain in One Piece?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.88%chance

422382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

759

Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss

Feb 7, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57%chance

341957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

928

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Will the House Mouse (Mus musculus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 19, 8:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.4%chance

7798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

950

405

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Sep 27, 12:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.78%chance

15654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

896

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

Dec 27, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.54%chance

16650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

937

Eye tracking will replace the computer mouse.

Nov 9, 12:10 AMNov 16, 10:59 AM

10%chance

8607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

90

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.58%chance

17337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

880

Will "Mourning a life without AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.98%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

962

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.87%chance

4261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

760

403

Mount Spurr significant eruption by date?

Mar 20, 5:16 AMJan 31, 9:59 PM

2150

OptionProbability

Before 2029

After 2028

Before May 2026

Before April 2025

Before May 2025

Before August 2025

56

50

47

0

0

0

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