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Prediction markets for Move Sales

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.3%chance

446791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3057

1039

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will tinygrad be more important than OpenPilot?

Nov 30, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.52%chance

111805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

117

How much above (or below) baseline will Merch sales move due to Manifest?

Apr 22, 11:05 PMJun 14, 10:52 PM

31205

OptionProbability

Baseline-ish

+50%

+20%

-20%

+100%

-50%

+200%

-80%

21

17

17

16

11

8

5

5

Will POWDR announce the sale of a ski area to Vail, Alterra, Mountain Capital Partners, or Boyne by summer 2026?

Aug 23, 2:42 AMSep 27, 3:59 AM

56%chance

4612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

89

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

What year will Chūō Shinkansen begin commercial operation?

Dec 8, 2:10 PMDec 15, 3:59 PM

2239

OptionProbability

2036

Other

Project cancelled

2035

2034

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2027

23

23

21

19

4

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Which acquired improv theatre will be dumped first?

Feb 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1140

OptionProbability

iO

Second City

UCB

None, these will be the first-ever private equity acquisitions to thrive

32

32

32

3

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

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