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Prediction markets for Movement

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.62%chance

13311375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2266

1908

Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?

Sep 29, 1:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.49%chance

697303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

1967

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?

Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

89.32%chance

845368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3812

1135

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?

Dec 13, 7:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

653865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

967

Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.54%chance

713494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

1054

In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?

Dec 13, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.53%chance

331443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

699

Will a paramilitary group form around the anti immigration movement in the UK in the next 6 years?

Aug 14, 12:10 AMDec 21, 11:59 PM

26.98%chance

141180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will there be a serious "moon hoax" movement about the next moon landing within 5 years of it?

Apr 10, 12:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

59.53%chance

261167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

884

Will "avatarism" become a significantly notable movement by 2030?

Jun 6, 1:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.27%chance

31950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

902

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.5%chance

20465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

911

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

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