MPS News

Labour Majority - No

Labour Majority - Yes

No Majority - Yes

No Majority - No

Conservative Majority - Yes

2029

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2030

0 defections

Polanski does not become Green Party leader.

1 defection

2-5 defections

6-10 defections

One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

NO

> 0 MPs in the House of Commons.

polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

won >0 General Elections in the past decade.

registered with the Electoral Commission.

more MPs in Wales than any other party (N/A if Wales is independent)

polled above 30% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the most MPs in the House of Commons.

split into multiple electorally-successful parties since 2024.

polled above 40% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the 2nd most MPs in the House of Commons.

won the previous London Mayoral election

more MPs in Scotland than any other party (N/A if Scotland is independent)

NO

YES

> 0 MPs in the House of Commons.

registered with the Electoral Commission.

polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

won >0 General Elections in the past decade.

polled above 30% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the most MPs in the House of Commons.

won the previous London Mayoral election

polled above 40% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the 2nd most MPs in the House of Commons.

YES

Chris Bowen

Peter Khalil

Tim Wilson