MultiChoice News

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

17639

7122

In month will we have early resolution on linked multichoice markets?

Jan 22, 4:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

109127

OptionProbability

Other

July 2025

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

January 2025

February 2025

March 2025

April 2025

May 2025

June 2025

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. Will there be a debate, and if so what will the judges conclude?

Apr 9, 1:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

344161

OptionProbability

No COVID debate organized by Scott Alexander with at least $10k concludes before 2026

Debate happens, judges find in favor of zoonosis

Debate happens, judges find in favor of lab leak

Debate happens, the result is a tie or equally split decision (Such as one judge for lab leak, one judge for Zoonosis)

Other

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Crash of Learjet 55 - NTSB's determined cause(s) - Multichoice FFA

Feb 1, 1:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61412

OptionProbability

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that pilot error (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of ground-based air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional pilot action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional passenger action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

Collision between American Eagle Flight 5342 and Black Hawk - NTSB's determined cause(s) - Multichoice FFA

Feb 1, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14897