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Prediction markets for Multiple on Invested Capital

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3475

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

69

61

52

39

29

Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?

Feb 2, 6:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

17343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

173

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

562

OptionProbability

Perplexity

xAI

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

38

28

19

7

7

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