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Prediction markets for Multiples

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5345534

OptionProbability

≥3x

2.5-3x

2-2.5x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

1.4-1.6x

1.2-1.4x

1-1.2x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

23

14

13

12

12

11

8

5

2

1

Will multiple people be charged for Charlie Kirk’s death?

Sep 10, 10:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.02%chance

315763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3387

295

Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?

Dec 13, 7:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

653865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

967

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Jan 18, 12:13 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

17.66%chance

453031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

896

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will Manifold implement "resolves-to-multiple" Multiple Choice markets before 2027?

Nov 1, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.06%chance

41271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2205

453

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.02%chance

271175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

899

Will there be a transitioned transgender player that has played multiple games in the NBA by the end of 2030?

Mar 31, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.66%chance

15681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

867

Will there be a transitioned transgender player that has played multiple games in the NFL by the end of 2030?

Mar 31, 12:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.29%chance

10676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

857

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

Will any World Cup team win multiple games in the knockout stage via penalty shootouts?

Jun 23, 1:34 AMJul 19, 11:59 PM

56.12%chance

11537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

656

Will BART close multiple stations in 2027?

Mar 11, 5:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.84%chance

8520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

747

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