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Prediction markets for Multiples

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4439610

OptionProbability

1.4-1.6x

1.2-1.4x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

≥3x

1-1.2x

2-2.5x

2.5-3x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

25

18

17

12

8

7

6

4

3

2

Will multiple people be charged for Charlie Kirk’s death?

Sep 10, 10:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.57%chance

305013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2637

379

Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?

Dec 13, 7:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

653865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

967

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Jan 18, 12:13 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

17.66%chance

453031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

896

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will Manifold implement "resolves-to-multiple" Multiple Choice markets before 2027?

Nov 1, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.81%chance

41267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2225

449

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.02%chance

271175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

899

Will there be a transitioned transgender player that has played multiple games in the NBA by the end of 2030?

Mar 31, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.66%chance

15681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

867

Will there be a transitioned transgender player that has played multiple games in the NFL by the end of 2030?

Mar 31, 12:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.29%chance

10676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

857

Will there be multiple new US states by the end of 2030?

Oct 30, 12:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.77%chance

13581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

935

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

Will BART close multiple stations in 2027?

Mar 11, 5:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.48%chance

7420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

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