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Prediction markets for Music AI

Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025?

Jan 9, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.2%chance

8028078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4776

209

Will a radio station play any AI music I create in 2025?

Jan 10, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.63%chance

5924509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5152

194

Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.35%chance

2923870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2795

358

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

11.11%chance

397364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2602

186

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.74%chance

306234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14661

6824

Will AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?

Dec 1, 12:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.11%chance

363468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1480

891

What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups?

Jun 26, 12:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

111990

OptionProbability

A lawsuit reaches a settlement

Training data is leaked or disclosed publicly by the court

Microsoft drops its partnership with Suno

A lawsuit reaches judgment

A lawsuit reaches trial

A lawsuit is dismissed

A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the plaintiff

A lawsuit expands to include Microsoft as a defendant

A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the defendant

Udio or Suno will shutdown services permanently

A Billboard Top-100 Artist testifies at trial

Udio or Suno will shutdown services temporarily

97

73

69

52

42

37

34

31

26

21

20

9

Will 10 people comment saying they spent money on AI music before 2026?

Feb 5, 1:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.29%chance

271832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

979

955

will an AI Music Streaming site have annual revenue of $50M+ before 2027?

Apr 10, 12:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

89.14%chance

201542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

700

201

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

27.09%chance

91491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1640

610

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

14.1%chance

32999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

875

Will AI create a decent remix of AOE2+Medieval Total War 2 music by EOY 2025?

Feb 22, 2:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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