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Prediction markets for Music AI

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

21.37%chance

3715435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19178

5218

Will AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?

Dec 1, 12:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.4%chance

383570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1565

879

What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups?

Jun 26, 12:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

111990

OptionProbability

A lawsuit reaches a settlement

Training data is leaked or disclosed publicly by the court

Microsoft drops its partnership with Suno

A lawsuit reaches judgment

A lawsuit reaches trial

A lawsuit is dismissed

A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the plaintiff

A lawsuit expands to include Microsoft as a defendant

A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the defendant

Udio or Suno will shutdown services permanently

A Billboard Top-100 Artist testifies at trial

Udio or Suno will shutdown services temporarily

100

73

69

52

42

37

34

31

26

21

20

9

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

20.73%chance

121806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1955

511

will an AI Music Streaming site have annual revenue of $50M+ before 2027?

Apr 10, 12:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

85.67%chance

211563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

561

221

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

11.83%chance

331249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

838

When will Sber release music-generating AI for general usage?

Apr 23, 8:29 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

4221

OptionProbability

2025.75-2026

2026-2026.25

2026.25-2026.5

2026.5-2026.75

2025-2025.25

2025.25-2025.5

2025.5-2025.75

2024.75-2025

2024.5-2024.75

2024.25-2024.5

2026.75-2027

2027-2027.25

2027.25-2027.5

2027.5-2027.75

2027.75-2028

11

11

11

11

8

8

8

7

5

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.22%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

In 2028, will I be just as suspicious towards music as I am towards photos? (In regards to AI slop.)

Jan 12, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.48%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will there be a AI-generated music video of Taylor Swift singing to AOE2 music by EOY 2026?

Mar 3, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.41%chance

557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

118

Have you "made" music on UDIO, or a similar AI music service?

Mar 8, 8:43 AMDec 31, 8:41 AM

150

Find a reliable report of an AI music generator having at least a million users, from before August

Aug 24, 2:28 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM

00

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