OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
Mexico survives group stage
Canada survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
US scores in every single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Neymar plays in a match
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
Messi to score a free kick
Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
3+ penalty shootout
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Trump still alive at end of final match
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Player tears their ACL
Trump attends match
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
Over 10.5 red cards
Players cleat falls off their foot
Emmanuel Macron attends match
Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
South American team reaches semi-final
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
Bottle thrown on field
Champion is a first place group stage winner
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
Champion is unbeaten
This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
2+ European countries reach top 4
20+ penalty goals
Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Messi scores more goals than Mbappe
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Any host nation in quarter final
Asian player misses penalty kick
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds
No red cards issued in the Final match
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
More own goals than red cards in tourney
US goes further than Mexico
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Messi gets a yellow card
Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
Someone escorted off field shirtless
Elon Musk attends match
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
Over 14.5 own goals scored
2 UEFA teams in final
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Freddy attends the final match
Laser pointer on goalie during match
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Team loses after leading 2-0
Goal scored within 1st minute
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Spain goes further than France
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)
VAR overturns second yellow card
Flares in stands during match in USA
Betting scandal reported
France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
France becomes finalist
5+ hat tricks
USA player gets the red card
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Winning team has a foreign manager
Team captain gets red card
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
Bald person gets the red card
Messi scores on every game he plays
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
Asian player gets the red card
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
Canada goes further than US
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Belgium plays against The Netherlands
30+ penalty goals
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Salt Bae attending a match
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Smoke bomb during match in USA
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Player gets spat on during match
25+ people arrested at stadium
17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!
Any match is canceled or postponed
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
England loses on penalties
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
King Charles attends match
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
World Cup winner to never trail in a match
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Ronaldo does not start
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Fans invade field during match
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
The Netherlands reaches half-final
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Football is coming home?
Disruption at Iran match
15+ cards in any match
Asia team reaches semi final
Trump attends 3 or more games
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Bonnie Blue attending a match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Major security incident
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
Another match with 3+ red cards
10+ goals in any match
Player bit during match
Goal scored from own half
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Match is forfeited
Trump dancing at match
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Players / members of team attempt to defect
Team gets removed or disqualified
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Ronaldo does jerkin move
Player shits in the pants during match
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Player dies during World Cup
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
All 3 host countries win the opener
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Ronaldo scores before Messi
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
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OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Add garlic
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
add 'gunpowder' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idli_podi)
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Use the same dough bake it as focaccia. Flat with EVOO added during shaped rise and baste with EVOO instead of spraying water during baking.
put ketchup and cheese on it
Add slurs to it
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Make the bread taste good
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Mix only flour and water. Wait 30–60 minutes. Then mix in yeast and salt.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Make banana bread
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Complete 5 items from your to-do list while the bread is rising
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of gravy that includes chicken stock
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Use a convection oven/setting
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Bake for 15 more minutes
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add caffeine to the bread
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
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OptionProbability
Magic: The Gathering
Cult of the Lamb
Death's Door
Shift Happens
Baba is You
Understand
The Witness
Hollow Knight
It Takes Two
Unravel Two
Portal 2
Braid
Portal
Superliminal
The Talos Principle
The Talos Principle 2
Antichamber
Perspective
Portal Reloaded
Portal Stories: Mel
Thinking with Time Machine
Cell Machine
Bokura
Hades
Hades 2
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes
Superhot
Slay the Princess
Mind over Magnet
Escape Academy
blue prince
Pico Park 2
Viewfinder
Silksong
Baba Is You XTREME
Papers Please
The Room
Pico Park
Wargroove
Patrick's Parabox
Q.U.B.E. 2
Q.U.B.E.
The Stanley Parable
Noita
Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A
Outer Wilds
We Were Here Too
Mini Motorways
Don't Starve
We Were Here
scarlet hollow
Terraria
Chants of Sennaar
Patch Quest
Minecraft
Manifold Garden
We Were Here Forever
Goragoa
Subnauticta
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip
Baldur's Gate 3
Clandestine
Nobody Saves the World
Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime
Split Fiction
Rayman Legends
LittleBigPlanet 3
Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light
Bean and nothingness
Space Station 13
Nomifactory
Monifactory
Rebirth of the Night
Induction
Akane
Morrowind
going under: internships are heck
Animal Well
English Country Tune
English Country Tune
Satisfactory
Expedition 33
Quantum Conundrum
Stoneshard
Final Fantasy Tactics (original)
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2
Octopath Travel
Project Triangle Strategy
Sokosoko
Physics-Breaking Boxes
Inbox Unbox
Linelith
Boxing Up Bamboo
Frog Wizard Gem Quest
The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room
Clockwork Cat
salt and sactuary
From Muddled to Clean
Path to Nowhere
Arknights
Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten
Lorelei and the Laser Eyes
A Monster's Expedition
Lingo
Solas 128
Gentoo Rescue
Ugly
Toki Tori 2+
Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game
Isles of Sea and Sky
Chroma Zero
Paquerette
Riven
Baba Files Taxes
Baba Is Quiz
A Solitaire Mystery
IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME
Leaf's Odyssey
Submachine
LOK Digital
Leap Year
Recursed
Fever Meme
Passant: A Chess Roguelike
tetr.io (quickplay duos)
Taiji
Crawl
Corekeeper
Emberknights
Sworn
Jumpspace
Gloomhaven
Mountain Peak
A Way Out
The Past Within
How 2 Escape
All You Need is Help
Melbits World
Parallel Experiment
Superbugs: Awaken
Tick Tock: A Tale for Two
Tristoy
Unboxing the Cryptic Killer
Tetris Effect
Pushmo
World of Goo
The Swapper
Papers, Please
The Séance of Blake Manor
Fugitive (board/card game)
Codenames Duet (card game)
Pandemic (boardgame)
Fugitive (board/card game)
Nine Sols
Sineus Arena
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
Moonlighter
Myst
We Were Here Together
Hyperrogue
Void Stranger
PEAK
Exploding kittens
Sackboy: A Big Adventure
Arc Raiders
Unstable Unicorns 🦄
Mario Party
Magicka
Yume Nikki
The House of DaVinci
Tunic
Moving Out
Moving Out
Timberborn
Trine 2
A Couple Of Cubes
Root (tabletop or digital version)
Children of Morta
Rainworld
Deadly Rooms of Death
Fez
CrossCode
Cocoon
Islands of Insight
Monopoly
USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)
SteamWorld Dig
Snakebird
Chess
Slay the Spire
Among Us
Beyond: Two Souls
Stephen's Sausage Roll
Amazing Chicken Adventures
Spiritfarer
Wingspan
Stardew Valley
Can of Wormholes
Disco Elysium
Splendor (tabletop game)
Overcooked
Return of the Obra Dinn
Inscryption
Slice and Dice
Glider (1988)
Teardown
Human: Fall Flat
Castle Crashers
Tokimeki Memorial
999
Detroit: Become Human
Zero Time Dilemma
Astroneer
Wild Woods
What Remains of Edith Finch
Advance Wars
Doki Doki Literature Club!
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80
80
80
77
77
75
73
72
70
66
64
63
62
62
61
60
56
56
55
55
54
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
46
45
44
43
42
42
41
41
41
40
40
40
38
35
34
34
34
31
30
28
28
27
25
25
25
25
25
24
22
22
15
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jeopardy
Sesame Street
Antiques Roadshow
Wheel of Fortune
White Lotus
Simpsons
Battlebots
Cyberchase
Spongebob Squarepants
Homestar Runner
Peppa Pig
Bobs Burgers
Survivor
South Park
Rick and Morty
Shark Tank
Ancient Aliens
Paw patrol
Family Guy
NCIS
Bluey
Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Ghost Adventures
Storage Wars
Deadliest Catch
Family Feud
Black Mirror
Pawn Stars
Phineas and Ferb
Severence
American Pickers
Abbott Elementry
Teen Titans Go!
Robot Chicken
Beavis and Butt Head
Law & Order (revival)
The Incredible Dr Pol
Ghost Hunters
Impractical Jokers
American Horror Story
Law & Order: SVU
Grey's Anatomy
Forged in Fire
The Bear
Hazbin Hotel
Is it Cake
American Dad
True Detective
Futurama
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Red vs Blue
Stranger Things
Late show with Stephen Colbert
99
99
98
98
92
92
90
90
89
89
88
88
86
81
81
76
74
73
70
70
66
62
61
60
60
60
58
56
56
55
54
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
45
40
38
38
29
28
21
17
2
0
OptionProbability
Water
Salt
Potatoes
Soy protein
Black Pepper
Fruit Juice
Green Beans
Coffee
Rice
Onion
Tomatoes
Bacon
Yeast-Leavened Bread
Erythritol
Lima Beans
Yam
Ground Beef
Chicken
Lettuce
Aspartame
98
95
72
71
59
56
52
48
48
47
40
35
34
34
30
30
19
19
18
18
OptionProbability
Other
Tardigrade
Mouse/Rat
C. Elegans or other Nematoad
Fruit Fly
Ant
Dog
Cat
Chicken
Penguin
Cow
Horse
Human (WILL NOT COUNT)
25
23
19
12
7
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens legal
Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens illegal
Not Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens legal
Not Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens illegal
77
21
1
1
OptionProbability
Fruit Fly
Other
C. Elegans or other nematoad
Mouse/Rat
Tardigrade
Ant
Dog
Chicken
Cow
Cat
Rabbit
Penguin
Snake
Horse
25
25
16
6
6
5
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Will there be 4 consecutive years in which fewer than 60 billion chickens are killed before 2080?
Will there be 4 consecutive years in which fewer than 70 billion chickens are killed before 2080?
Will there be 4 consecutive years in which fewer than 40 billion chickens are killed before 2080?
Will there be 4 consecutive years in which fewer than 50billion chickens are killed before 2080?
Will there be 4 consecutive years in which fewer than 30 billion chickens are killed before 2080?
Will there be 4 consecutive years in which fewer than 20 billion chickens are killed before 2080?
Will there be 4 consecutive years in which fewer than 10 billion chickens are killed before 2080?
50
34
31
28
28
26
22
OptionProbability
Other
Burger King
Steak and Shake
Mc Donald's
White Castle
Sweetgreen
Shake Shack
Chipotle
Panera Bread
Trump House
The Organic Coup
BurgerFi
Lyfe Kitchen
Sonics
Raising Cane
Arby's
Kentucky Fried Chicken KFC
Taco Bell
Wendy's
Popeyes
Chik-fil-A
Checkers/Rallys
Zaxbys
19
11
8
7
6
6
6
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
Cat
Petdog
Monkey
Labrats
Watchdog
Chickens
Bugs
Zoo animals
20
18
11
10
10
9
7
7
7
OptionProbability
The Humane League
Wild Animal Initiative
Çiftlik Hayvanlarını Koruma Derneği
Dansk Vegetarisk Forening
Shrimp Welfare Project
Sinergia Animal
Aquatic Life Institute
Good Food Fund
Animal Welfare Observatory
Sociedade Vegetariana Brasileira
Faunalytics
Fish Welfare Initiative
Legal Impact for Chickens
New Roots Institute
The Good Food Institute
ACTAsia
66
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
24
24
24
24
24
24
